Quote:
Originally Posted by Heltonfan
Finally, as far as the projections are concerned, 79 wins isn't a 3-game improvement from 2006, it's a 3-game dropoff. My system doesn't care that the Rockies underperformed their component stats by six games last year.
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Uh-oh. If your system is resulting in a 3-game dropoff, masked by the actual record, then we can conclude that Hurdle will get about 75 wins from this group of players. In the four full seasons that Hurdle has managed (not counting 2002 when he inherited a 6-16 team), the Rockies have played a total of 17 games worse than their Pythagorean record, and has been amazingly consistent in under-achieving vs. RS/RA. The team has been between 3 and 5 games worse the past four years.
So, it's safe to assume they will be about 4 games worse than a projection system such as your's suggests. The NUMBERS may point to 79 wins with your methodology, but the TRACK RECORD of the field management suggests this is more likely a 75-win projection.