If Wright had stayed, this team would be an order of magnitude better. Deon Thompson is a mid-level college big man and Stepheson is still a project. Wright had great offensive skills and the wingspan of a 7-footer. Paired with Hansbrough, he'd have given us an all-but-unstoppable inside game.
On another note, imagine this: Kevin Love's choice came down to Carolina or UCLA. Had he decided to come east, we'd be killers.
It's hard to say who will go pro this year. The Tar Heel coaches are very well connected with the front offices of the NBA teams. If they say that a kid is a lottery pick, Roy encourages him to go get rich.
Hansbrough loves college, so he might decide to decline Roy's advice and hang around for his senior year, regardless. Lawson, OTOH, wanted to leave last year. If he's in the top 12, I expect him to go. I imagine Ellington will take his coaches' advice.
As a pro, Hansbrough's upside is somewhere near the next Bill Laimbeer (assuming his 17-footer can become reliable). His downside is somewhere around just another 10-pt, 5-reb power forward, who plays for a few years but never does anything special. A reasonable expectation would be that he becomes the next Kurt Rambis; a solid contributer to a good team.
Lawson is only 5' 11". He's super-quick, but not a great shooter. At best, he could be a solid starter for a mediocre team. At worst, he spends a career getting his time when his team is up 20 with two minutes to go. Most likely is that he takes a couple of years to develop into a guy who can spell the starting PG for a good team.
Ellington is a quality 6'4" guard and as the old saying goes, "6'4" guards are a dime a dozen." Upside, he scores just under 20 per game through a good but not spectacular career. Downside, he never develops any consistency and quickly fades into obscurity. Reasonable expectation, he delivers about 15 ppg as a secondary option somewhere.
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