[Zen653]

I don't think the Red Sox will slip to third place because they are worse. I think they'll slip to third place because the Yankees and Blue Jays are healthier, and therefore better.

One of these years, the Blue Jays will finally stay healthy for a full season and realize their potential. I think they have the best pitching staff in the division. Halladay and Burnett are aces, McGowan will be a good No. 2, and I expect Marcum to pitch like a No. 3. Then there's the bullpen with Accardo and Frasor setting up Ryan.

If the Jays had a little more offense, I'd pick them to win both the division and the American League pennant. Rios-Wells-Thomas is a strong 3-4-5, I'm just not sold on the rest of Toronto's lineup. I think the Blue Jays probably should have pursued Barry Bonds to solidify their playoff positioning.

Regular season baseball favors teams with a high octane offense because good hitting teams can always beat up on bad pitching. That's why I have the Yankees winning the division. But once the playoffs start, it's all about the pitching which is why I wouldn't be surprised to see the Yankees bounced in the first round. New York just doesn't have the elite rotation depth that it needs for a deep run in the playoffs.

The Red Sox look decent on paper, but they are relying too heavily on rookies and on veterans who had career years. Mike Lowell is not going to be the Mike Lowell of 2007. Hideki Okajima will be average. I'd be surprised if Jacoby Ellsbury or Dustrin Pedroia are anywhere near as good as they were last year. Jon Lester's atrocious K/BB ratio will finally catch up to him. Clay Buchholz, like most rookies, will have his ups and downs.

Beckett and Wakefield both have back problems. Colon is pitching batting practice. The Red Sox won't get anything from Schilling until the last couple months of the season, if anything at all. J.D Drew and Julio Lugo will remain colossal wastes of money. Varitek will continue to hit poorly while being hyped up as the best catcher since Bill Dickey.

On the positive side, Ortiz and Ramirez might hit for more power, Youkilis and Papelbon will probably be about the same, Matsuzaka should improve, and Delcarmen should be ready to step up into a more challenging role. Also, the bench looks better with the upgrade from Eric Hinske to Sean Casey, and with the upgrade from the defensively-challenged Sultan of K, Wily Mo Pena, to a full year of the clutch-hitting Bobby Kielty and Gold Glove defense of whoever sits between Crisp and Ellsbury.

I think Boston's minor league depth should satisfactorily plug any small to medium-sized holes that might develop along the way. Dusty Brown and Ontario's George Kottaras look better than advertised at catcher. Jed Lowerie could replace Julio Lugo by August. Brandon Moss seems like a solid fourth outfielder. There are lots of exciting young arms in Justin Masterson and Hunter Jones.

Put the Red Sox in the AL West, NL Central or NL West, and I'd pick them as shoo-ins for the division title. In the AL East, they'll be hard-pressed to finish better than third. They don't have the offense of the Yankees and they don't have the pitching of the Blue Jays. Even if they win a respectable number of games (90+), I don't think it will be enough when the other two will win in excess of 95 games. Boston's best chance of repeating is to have the Yankees and Blue Jays roll over like they did last year (due to injuries), and for the Tigers to lose Justin Verlander and one of their hitters. And even then, Boston would still have the Indians to contend with, not to mention the Mets or pitching-rich Diamondbacks in a potential World Series. Nearly everything fell into place for Boston in 2007. I don't see things working out quite as nicely in 2008.