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bedir than average · December 23rd, 2006, 02:33 PM

There are a lot of terms thrown around baseball circles that attempt to classify starting pitchers. Often the disagreements over these terms lead to disagreements among fans about the player even if they agree about the player's abilities.

Take Barry Zito. Some are calling him an Ace, a Top of the Rotation pitcher, a True #1, a #1, a #2 and even a few think of him as a #3 starter. Yet, most of those writing about Zito agree on his talent level.

So what do these terms mean?

What kind of stats do you think of when you read ACE? Or TOR? What is the difference between a True #1 and a #1 starter?

Does it matter that a Middle of the Rotation (MOR) guy on one team might be a TOR on another? OR when you read MOR/TOR do you think about what slot the guy would be on a certain caliber ballclub?

For me, I always tend to classify pitchers based upon how they would stack up in a rotation on a 95+ Win ball club. Except for the ACE - when I think of ACE, I think of a guy that regardless of his performance year-to-date instills fear in the majority of the opposing batters. The ACE in my mind is the perrenial Cy Young contender. Santana, Halladay, Clemens, Oswalt, Carpenter might be the only ones that are at that status.

A "True #1" for me would be the guy who is a number one starter on a majority of winning teams. Not the guy who was given the Opening Day duties, but the one who if the Manager had full control he would put as the #1 starter for the first round of the playoffs.

All teams have a 1,2,3,4,5 starter of course, but when we call someone a #1 it has a certain connotation. It makes one think of a dominant player. In the Mariners realm we started talking about TOR, MOR and BER (Back End Rotation) guys rather than their slotting.

Jason Churchill, as the DiamondGenius on FanHome v2.0, created the TOR designation as a way to indicate that on a playoff caliber club the pitcher would be at WORST the third starter.

Middle of Rotation guys we think as guys who in any given year who slot between a 2 and 4 on a playoff club, but would definately be starters in both short and long series.

Back End of the Rotation types are guys who on a good club I would expect to not start in a short series, and at most start a single game (#4) in a long series.

Do I have certain statistical limits for each qualification? NO, 'tis mainly a gut thing. I guess I could say that ACES are the top 5% or so of guys. TOR would be the top 25% (ish) of the 150-160 regular starters in a season, I might say that the MOR guys are the middle half (think 26-75%) of those guys and the BER would be the long tail of regular starters, sixth starters, and spot guys. So in my little world I would say that their are 6-9 Aces, 35-40 TOR, 75-85 MOR and a lot of BER.

One could use any unified metric for pitching analysis and rank all pitchers according to that I guess, be it Pitching Runs Created, Average Game Score, Pitching Win Shares, or whatever and have a good idea.

I write this thinking that some Mariner Fans are saying that Zito is a #3, which i feel sells him short. He was 29th by AGS, 71st by DIPS, and tied for 14th by Quality Starts.

So how do you classify pitchers, and how specifically would you classify Barry Zito?

December 23rd, 2006, 02:33 PM	#1 (permalink)
bedir than average Hall of Famer Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Starbucks Posts: 8,258	Classifying Starting Pitchers There are a lot of terms thrown around baseball circles that attempt to classify starting pitchers. Often the disagreements over these terms lead to disagreements among fans about the player even if they agree about the player's abilities. Take Barry Zito. Some are calling him an Ace, a Top of the Rotation pitcher, a True #1, a #1, a #2 and even a few think of him as a #3 starter. Yet, most of those writing about Zito agree on his talent level. So what do these terms mean? What kind of stats do you think of when you read ACE? Or TOR? What is the difference between a True #1 and a #1 starter? Does it matter that a Middle of the Rotation (MOR) guy on one team might be a TOR on another? OR when you read MOR/TOR do you think about what slot the guy would be on a certain caliber ballclub? For me, I always tend to classify pitchers based upon how they would stack up in a rotation on a 95+ Win ball club. Except for the ACE - when I think of ACE, I think of a guy that regardless of his performance year-to-date instills fear in the majority of the opposing batters. The ACE in my mind is the perrenial Cy Young contender. Santana, Halladay, Clemens, Oswalt, Carpenter might be the only ones that are at that status. A "True #1" for me would be the guy who is a number one starter on a majority of winning teams. Not the guy who was given the Opening Day duties, but the one who if the Manager had full control he would put as the #1 starter for the first round of the playoffs. All teams have a 1,2,3,4,5 starter of course, but when we call someone a #1 it has a certain connotation. It makes one think of a dominant player. In the Mariners realm we started talking about TOR, MOR and BER (Back End Rotation) guys rather than their slotting. Jason Churchill, as the DiamondGenius on FanHome v2.0, created the TOR designation as a way to indicate that on a playoff caliber club the pitcher would be at WORST the third starter. Middle of Rotation guys we think as guys who in any given year who slot between a 2 and 4 on a playoff club, but would definately be starters in both short and long series. Back End of the Rotation types are guys who on a good club I would expect to not start in a short series, and at most start a single game (#4) in a long series. Do I have certain statistical limits for each qualification? NO, 'tis mainly a gut thing. I guess I could say that ACES are the top 5% or so of guys. TOR would be the top 25% (ish) of the 150-160 regular starters in a season, I might say that the MOR guys are the middle half (think 26-75%) of those guys and the BER would be the long tail of regular starters, sixth starters, and spot guys. So in my little world I would say that their are 6-9 Aces, 35-40 TOR, 75-85 MOR and a lot of BER. One could use any unified metric for pitching analysis and rank all pitchers according to that I guess, be it Pitching Runs Created, Average Game Score, Pitching Win Shares, or whatever and have a good idea. I write this thinking that some Mariner Fans are saying that Zito is a #3, which i feel sells him short. He was 29th by AGS, 71st by DIPS, and tied for 14th by Quality Starts. So how do you classify pitchers, and how specifically would you classify Barry Zito? __________________ I'm sorry I left for a while. I needed a vaction, and then work changed substantially. I'm over 50 hour weeks, plus two hours a day of commuting time. A few weeks ago I launched my own blog about Seattle Sounders FC and Life in Puget Sound. I won't be by these parts often as my focus has changed. Sorry about the unannounced retirement.