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PECOTA has him pegged at $23,050,000 in marginal value above replacement player (MORP) over the next four years alone, which is when he's scheduled to make $8 million. I'd say that's a good value...
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Well, MORP is based on the free agent market and Corpas is a pre-arb guy. So of course he's a bargain by those standards.
I have Corpas's expected salary (based on service time and projected WAR) at a total of $5.25 million over the next four years. Of course, closers get overpaid in arbitration (by roughly 75% based on this year's data) - adjusting for that, I get an expected salary of $8.59 million. So we're looking at a small bargain there, and that's with my relatively pessimistic projection for Corpas.
It's not a bad deal. But it's certainly not a great one.
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If I'm not mistaken, he's arb eligible after '08.
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You are mistaken. Corpas came up in mid-July '06; there's no way he'd qualify as a super-two.
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A) Weathers is far from a sure thing at this point...
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Which doesn't detract from Hoya's overall point (as I understand it)... one way or another, things don't add up here. Either we've signed Corpas 2 years in advance at no real discount (in which case the contract is just a needless risk), or we've burned the #8 overall draft pick on a potential setup man.
I think the latter is the correct interpretation - I would just view the Weathers pick and the Corpas signing as unrelated events, one of which was utterly boneheaded and the other of which was perfectly okay - but either way, it's tough to dispute the claim that we've expended more resources on the bullpen than we should have. Particularly in light of the fact that Fuentes is still here, Vizcaino has been brought in, and we refused to bring in a respectable second base option.