Newman, right now Obama would have my vote. Two main reasons:
1. Iraq. The full scope of the disastrous intervention has not even been realized yet. The latest: Turkey, upset at the prospect of a breakaway Kurdistan (the Kurds acting perfectly rationally when faced with the chaos in Baghdad), claims the "Iraqi" Kurds are making cross-border incursions. Turkey responds (or so they say) by sending their own forces into Iraqi Kurdistan. The Old Guard ("paleoconservative") wing of the Republican Party -- Bush 41, Scowcroft, Powell, etc. -- were right. Stability, even if it was the stability of a tyrant, was better than the alternative. I can't see how McCain, essentially a 100% supporter of the Bush 43 line on Iraq, can ever achieve a positive outcome. Maybe Obama can't either, but at least there's a chance.
2. Overall competence. Iraq is just the worst example of this Administration's blundering. McCain's instincts, I believe, are stronger than W's. But he exhibits a similar inattention to detail.
Don't get me wrong here. As I said, I'm more satisfied with this year's choices (if it is in fact Obama vs. McCain) than I've been with most presidential choices throughout my adult life. My dream outcome would be a modest Republican majority in both houses of Congress and Obama as President, since I'm afraid of the runaway excesses a strongly Democratic Congress will push on Obama. But that ain't gonna happen ...
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