[Zen653]

Through the first 32 games of the season, the Celtics were an astoundingly good 29-3. For the last 8 games, they've been 4-4, losing to the Bobcats, Wizards (twice) and Raptors.

I'm not sure what to make of the recent slide. Garnett and Pierce have been consistently great all year, with few off-nights on offense and no off-nights on defense. Honestly, I've never seen Pierce play better defense at any time in his career; he deserves to make an All-Defensive team.

Lots of other players are contributing too, from Rajon Rondo to Tony Allen to Eddie House to James Posey to guys like Big Baby and Leon Powe (in recent games.)

Ray Allen has been a disappointment with his low shooting percentage and spotty defense but it's not as though he's dragging the team down or failing to contribute. Just the other night against Portland he scored 35 points and absolutely dominated. He's also the author of two buzzer-beating victories this year, so it's tough to be too hard on him.

Yet something seems wrong with this team. No championship-contender should get smoked at home by the Bobcats. No championship-contender should be out-scored at home by 26-5 to close out a game (the second loss to the Wizards.) Boston seems to go cold at the worst time possible, allowing leads of 5-12 points to completely evaporate during the closing minutes of the fourth quarter.

I doubt it's because guys are getting tired - Doc Rivers goes to his bench for 10 minute stretches at a time. I don't think it's because of a lack of intensity either. Not once have I questioned the team's effort (the Celtics are almost always active on defense, holding teams to under 100 points in 22 consecutive games until today's debacle against Toronto.)

Could it be that some teams play extra hard against the Celtics and simply have a freakishly good night? That would explain tonight's loss to Toronto where the Raptors shot 15-21 from three-point land and didn't miss a single free-throw in a narrow 2-point victory. But it doesn't explain the losses to the Bobcats and Wizards - games in which the Celtics were in control well into the 4th quarter, only to completely fall apart at the end and start missing nearly every shot.

If I were to hazard a guess, I'd say that these are the five problems:

1. Too many unnecessary passes. While normally you want teams to share the ball, the Celtics do it to an extreme. Garnett, Rondo, Tony Allen and even former ballhog Paul Pierce pass up a ton of open shots in order to get the ball to a teammate. And about a tenth of the time that they do this, they're firing the ball to someone in heavy traffic who is in a vastly inferior shooting position. The recipient of the pass then throws up a prayer or turns the ball over. While every tenth time may not seem like a lot, it adds up over the course of 48 minutes. I can't begin to tell you how frustrating it is (especially late in the 4th quarter of a close game) to see Garnett, Rondo or Pierce drive to the basket for what should be a high percentage floater, only to kick the ball out to an off-balanced, heavily-guarded Ray Allen who then misses the shot. Or how frustrating it is to watch Garnett pass up a dunk for a behind-the-back bullet pass to Kendrick Perkins' ankles, only to have the ball careen out of bounds, or into the hands of an opposing player.

2. No backup point guard. Rajon Rondo, when healthy (he's been somewhat limited by a back ailment), can set the offense and distribute the ball reasonably well. He's a decent assists man and usually a good defender. He can out-run people and penetrate lanes with the grace of Alex English. What Rondo lacks in consistent shooting he compensates for in athleticism and guile. But when he's out of the game, the Celtics can barely even bring the ball up the court. It's embarrassing. Other teams trap Eddie House, Tony Allen, Ray Allen, James Posey, or whoever it is who brings the ball up. And it works. The guy ends up in the corner with two defenders swallowing him up. When you waste half the shot clock trying to pass out of traffic, you make it much harder to set the offense, run a pick, and drive to the basket. The best way to resolve this problem is to simply sign a pure point guard. If the Grizzlies buy-out Damon Stoudamire, the Celtics should sign him in a nanosecond.

3. Over-reliance on Ray Allen. I don't know if he finally got old or if the ankles are bothering him more than he lets on. What I do know is that he's not the All-Star Ray Allen of Seattle fame. He's had more bad games than good ones by almost a 3 to 1 margin. He's not only bricking outside shots, he's airmailing them. And over the last few games, he's even been missing wide-open layups. Doc Rivers is partly to blame here because he continues to stubbornly play Ray Allen more minutes than anyone else on many nights despite his mediocrity. One of the bench players will be having a great game (like Tony Allen scoring 14 points in 7 minutes against the Raptors today) and Rivers will inexplicably pull him in order to make sure that Ray Allen gets his 38 minutes. On the last play of tonight's game, the Celtics trailed by 2 and had an opportunity to force overtime with 10 seconds left. House side-rimmed a three, and the rebound went to Ray Allen who missed a 2-foot hook shot. Earlier in the year, the Celtics had an opportunity to win a game in Cleveland if Ray Allen could hit one of two free throws at the end of regulation. He missed them both. As I said earlier, he's not the main problem, and he does have his moments. He's just not panning out the way Celtics fans had hoped.

4. Substitution patterns. One of the pre-season criticisms about this year's Celtics team was that it lacked a productive bench. Nothing could be further from the truth. There are nights when the Celtics bench outperforms the starters. If anything, the Boston bench (outside of the glaring hole at point guard) has been a strength, not a weakness. That's why I find it maddening when Doc Rivers doesn't stay with a unit that seems to be getting it done on a particular night. One day, it's Kendrick Perkins playing out of his mind, scoring nearly 20 points in one quarter, and Rivers removes him at the start of the second quarter and only plays him an additional 5 minutes. Another day, it's Big Baby who gobbles up every rebound and absolutely dominates, only to find himself back on the bench even though he's not in any foul trouble and doesn't seem to be tired. Tonight, it was Tony Allen who inexplicably got pulled in the midst of a career game. Why meddle with success? Why make adjustments when no adjustments need to be made? If Rivers wants to tinker, make it beneficial, like teaching the team how to handle the full court press or how to pick apart a zone defense.

5. Too many isolation plays down the stretch. The Celtics go from one extreme to the other. The first three and a half quarters they pass the ball too much. Then the last six minutes they start running isolation plays (usually for Pierce) that inevitably fail. When the game is wide open, this doesn't matter because the Celtics will hold onto the lead and withstand the closing run by the other team. When the game is close, this strategy proves disastrous. It never worked in the past and it doesn't work now. Why not continue playing the style of basketball that earned you a lead?