Quote:
Originally Posted by nanwynnfan
When I tallied DiMaggio's negative outs [K+HIDP] I factored in the years the DP stat was not recorded at a higher than average rate for J.D., so the 11.36% figure contains that padded input.
The difference between 30.9% and 11.36% of total outs is significant.
Agreed, by statistical regression it can be illustrated that a K > regular out on a scale of @ 1%. However, this is due to circumstances in which the K may be agreed by all parties to be just an out. The hurtful artithmetic factor of a K is a matter of circumstance. I do not attempt to make more of it ...
...The way I counted the two was: K = 1 unproductive out; HIDP = 1 unproductive out [NOT 2, it is simply 1 added out . normal routine out].
This context gives more credibility to the 31% - 11% out differential point I tried to make.
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Wilson C:
I believe the above fairly well comports with your detailed study of K out distributions, in that the K as harmless out is more a matter of small volume situations offensive threat situations against a larger volume of aggregated two out situations, the threat of potential DP and other counterbalances.
A guy at the plate who K's 30 times in a 600 AB season, with a runner on 3b and less than 2 out is a safer bet to bring in the run than his slugging teammate who fans 120 times in the same number of ABs.
Similarly, any situation where contact can move a runner or runners along [or not], at least he has the added, if slight chance, that the defense may make an error.