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Old 01-16-2008, 03:09 PM   #11 (permalink)
BigRapidsJackass
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HF's list:

1. Franklin Morales
2. Greg Reynolds
3. Ian Stewart
4. Dexter Fowler
5. Chris Nelson
6. Hector Gomez
7. Brandon Hynick
8. Eric Young
9. Chaz Roe
10. Michael McKenry
11. Shane Lindsay
12. Daniel Mayora
13. Xavier Cedeno
14. Aneury Rodriguez
15. Darin Holcomb
16. Helder Velazquez
17. Everth Cabrera
18. Seth Smith
19. Jonathan Herrera
20. Joe Koshansky
21. Will Harris
22. Brian Rike
23. Jhoulys Chacin
24. Pedro Strop
25. Samuel Deduno
26. Jeff Kindel
27. Alan Johnson
28. Esmil Rogers
29. Michael Paulk
30. Corey Wimberly

Sickels' list is now out (www.minorleagueball.com):

1.Franklin Morales, LHP, Grade A- (Heltonfan's #1)
2.Casey Weathers, RHP, Grade B+ (HF not ranked)
3.Ian Stewart, 3B, Grade B (HF 3)
4.Hector Gomez, SS, Grade B (HF 6)
5.Christopher Nelson, SS, Grade B (HF 5)
6.Dexter Fowler, OF, Grade B- (HF 4)
7.Greg Reynolds, RHP, Grade B- (HF 2)
8.Juan Morillo, RHP, Grade B- (HF not ranked)
9.Brandon Hynick, RHP, Grade B- (HF 7)
10.Seth Smith, OF, Grade B- (HF 18)
11.Eric Young Jr, 2B, Grade B- (HF 8)
12.Dan Mayora, INF, Grade B- (HF 12)
13.Brian Rike, OF, Grade B- (HF 22)
14.Pedro Strop, RHP, Grade C+ (HF 24)
15.Chaz Roe, RHP, Grade C+ (HF 9)
16.Joe Koshansky, 1B, Grade C+ (HF 20)
17.Will Harris, RHP, Grade C+ (HF 21)
18.Aneury Rodriguez, RHP, Grade C+ (HF 14)
19.Connor Graham, RHP, Grade C+ (HF not ranked)
20.Jhoulys Chacin, RHP, Grade C+ (HF 23)

I think HF's point here is that one can mechanically generate prospect lists (through a simple minor-league stats formula) that are roughly as useful as the "serious" prospect lists.

And I think he's proven that. The level of agreement between Sickels and HF is pretty amazing, given that these prospect lists are typically the product of: (1) statistical analysis (whether an actual formula such as HF's quick-and-dirty prospect list generator) or a kind of "seat of the pants" feel for the stats; (2) scouting, whether live/in person, video, or based on the reports of others; (3) other factors, such as body frame, etc (will a Dexter Fowler "fill out" and start to show some power?).

Of course, Sickels' -- by his nature and no doubt because of his limited financial wherewithal -- is always considered more "stat-based" than the others. Baseball America is the opposite, and they draw on a network of writers in the field, who in turn draw on personal observations and their conversations with scouts, who in turn draw on the Empty Hat of Tracy [couldn't resist.] So it will be more interesting to see how much agreement there is between the Heltonfan ProspectBot and the BA "Scouting" Reports.

[That's not to say that scouting is irrelevant; all the players on these lists are in their respective organizations because some scout somewhere actually watched them play.]
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