Quote:
Originally Posted by Heltonfan
One of the things that's always bothered me about what I do is that, while sabermetric methods do a wonderful job of evaluating past performance and projecting future performance, they can't seem to yield reasonable top prospect lists.
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Wonderful isn't the same word I'd use with some of the off-season conclusions in recent years where so many common sense risk factors are totally ignored and result in poor numeric recommendations. Stats certainly need to be part of the evaluation process along with so many other tools, though, so long as there is some realism also about their LIMITATIONS. I wouldn't let it bother me so much that those methods can't provide all the answers. Numbers simply cannot see pure talent and potential alone, especially in cases where tremendous talent is still being refined and technique improved. They never could and never will. And there is nothing wrong with that, nor does it mean there isn't value in looking at them as part of the process for a comprehensive approach to player evaluation with less blind spots. Turning a raw teenager into a big league player has a lot more to do with other things than the stats he puts up in the early stages along the way while learning. A statistical system could never see some of those developmental steps, nor should it need to as it serves a different purpose. Numbers also can't see x-rays on a player's arm, or how they are progressing in rehab or learning a new pitch or skill. Stats can't see attitude or work ethic which separates some prospects from others who make it. Numbers can never have all the answers, and will always just be one piece of information that is incomplete like all others unless considered collectively amongst all inputs.
The Rockies have ridden some young players to new heights recently, and we've had many youngsters come up and contribute. Certainly there is some reason for optimism there in some prospects still on the farm, but it also wouldn't surprise me if the organization didn't hit a dry spell upcoming in that regard. I'm not terribly impressed with our list now that so many have graduated to the big club.
If you want the team to continue its efforts to get back into the playoffs with their existing strategies, guys like Morales and Stewart probably need to reach their hyped potential to keep adding talent to the squad. Beyond that, though, I don't know if there are many difference makers remaining as so many have come up in recent years. Hopefully there will be some critical role player types that can be found in the remaining batch to provide some help at some point when needed, but that might be about it.