[bedir than average]

With the market exploding for CF contracts and some recent work that Tango did on the current market in general one can wonder what kind of contract that Ichiro will get in the near future.

Chart Here

Since Tango's chart uses WARP, I will use that number for all comparisons.

A.Soriano signs with Cubs for 8/136 for his age 31 season with a 3 year avg WARP of 5.4, last year at 8.6.

Vernon Wells is turning down a 7 year, 126M$ offer as an upcoming 28 year old with a 3 year WARP of 5.2 and last year at 6.1.

So we have three new data points to apply to my thread calling for the Mariners to extend Ichiro which I will post below.

Ichiro's defense is well known to us, his ability to play centerfield is obvious now. He will win another Gold Glove. The Fan Scouting Report will again have him in the top 9 regardless of position. He is a premier defensive player in the game.

His offense is falling, a little, though not nearly as much as some here claim.

When comparing RC/G, OPS and GrossProductionAverage of Ichiro to the Majors and then combining those ratings Ichiro was 15% better than league average on offense. Only one of those stats includes baserunning. GPA is a slight variation on OPS, but does include park factor.

Upcoming and recent deals for CF are below
Damon at 13% above and a bit younger got 4/52
Beltran at 26% above and a lot younger got 7/119
AnJones at 24% above and a bit younger is speculated to be getting 4/52
Torrii Hunter at 7% above league average and roughly the same age is expected to get 4/44-48

Dropping Beltran because Ichiro is not anywhere near Carlos' age, nor offensive ability the average % above MLB was 15, the average deal or speculation was 4 years and 50M$.

Considering that according to the Hardball Times Salary Calculator Ichiro is getting paid only 1M$ short of what his offense says he should, the Mariners are not grossly overpaying for his perceived marketing value at this time.

A caveat that should be known is that high contact rate, fast hitters actually do NOT age as quickly as sluggers, thereby somewhat mitagating the typical aging discussion, but not fully abandoning it.

In order to free up one Adam Jones to acquire a proven All-Star for LF/DH or a true TOR starter would you be a fan of the Mariners avoiding the will Ichiro resign post 2007 question by offering him a 4year/50M$ contract?

This deal would not add ANY payroll to 2007, which should be obvious, but I felt it needed to be said.

So prior to this offseason I speculated that his deal would be 4/50.

Applying the current offseason to Ichiro I'm guessing that Ichiro will get a 5 year deal and if you apply Tango's chart to a five year deal, you get Ichiro with a WARP of 7 now going down to 5/120 including his decline. If a team were to go only 3 years due to aging concerns (a 3 year deal would qualify him for the Hall) that would be a 3/72 deal.

This doesn't account for his unique ability to generate revenue. No matter how you break it down, he will be paid very well as a Free Agent.

Extending Ichiro this offseason would have been a better use of dollars than any deal the Mariners have done so far this offseason.