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Heltonfan · 11-23-2007, 11:21 PM

The Indians are one of the best organizations in the game. Mark Shapiro’s trading record is second to none, and with the exception of the apparent fixation on a “proven closer” (how else do you explain Wickman and Borowski?), the Indians have shown themselves to be pretty statistically savvy. They’re easily the favorites in the AL Central, and the future, even assuming that C.C. Sabathia leaves next winter, is quite bright.

Summary Statistics
Rotation: +18
Bullpen: -3
Lineup: +42
Bench: +11
Defense: +5
W-L record: 89-73

Rotation

Sabathia 3.08
Carmona 3.81
Westbrook 3.85
Lee 4.35
Byrd 4.54

Carmona was a Cy Young candidate this year. Westbrook went 6-9 with a 4.32 ERA. And yet they project to be basically the same pitcher. There are several reasons for this:
1)Carmona was incredibly lucky this year, both in terms of BABIP and situational luck. His ERA should have been a run higher than it actually was.
2)Westbrook has a track record. Carmona doesn’t.
3)Component-wise, they are basically the same pitcher. Carmona struck out 15% of the batters he faced, and walked 8%. Westbrook struck out 14% and walked 9%. And both are extreme groundballers.
The net effect of all this is that Carmona, in all likelihood, is one of the more overrated pitchers around right now.

The Indians also have plenty of depth behind the front five, with youngsters Jeremy Sowers (4.54), Aaron Laffey (4.65), and Adam Miller (4.58). I absolutely loathe Sowers as a pitcher, though; the guy has AA stuff, and doesn’t locate it particularly well. It’s pathetic. It amazes me that he gets anyone out at all. He’s a distant #8 on this depth chart, as far as I’m concerned.

Bullpen

Borowski 4.16
Betancourt 2.64
Perez 3.85
Fultz 3.82
Mastny 3.62
Mujica 4.08
Lewis 3.28

That’s a pretty good bullpen. It would be a great one if Borowski and Betancourt switched roles.

Lineup

C: Martinez 4.21 (.301, 0)
1B: Garko 1.00 (.266, -3)
2B: Cabrera 1.31 (.244, 4)
SS: Peralta 3.32 (.281, -4)
3B: Marte 1.38 (.254, -1)
LF: Francisco 1.27 (.260, -1)
CF: Sizemore 5.20 (.309, 0)
RF: Gutierrez 2.18 (.258, 8)
DH: Hafner 4.29 (.319)

Hafner’s ABR dropped 79 points from 2006 to 2007. He’s a great rebound candidate.

This is an easy group of players to get a handle on. Great talent up the middle, mediocre on the corners.

Bench

Shoppach .254
Barfield .244
Blake .256
Dellucci .257

Kelly Shoppach is one of the top 10 catchers in baseball right now. Having him as a backup is quite a luxury.

If I Were In Charge, I Would: The Indians are good enough that they don’t have to do much on the free agent market. They could use a quality corner outfielder, but with Milton Bradley out of the picture (due to his history with Wedge), the only free agent who fits that description is Fukudome. So, target Fukudome… but if they don’t get him, it’s no tragedy.

Now, here’s where things get interesting. The Johan Santana situation has gotten tons of media attention, and rightfully so. But what seems to have gone largely ignored is the fact that the Indians, with Sabathia, have the same issue to address; if anything, C.C. should have a little more trade value than Johan, because he’s a bit younger and is making $3 million less next year.

There are all kinds of options here. But the crucial difference between the Indians and Twins is that the Indians can easily justify holding onto their ace. So if they don’t find a deal to their liking, it’s no great loss. But they absolutely should explore things a little. If they can get a package that includes someone who could quite competently fill Sabathia’s rotation spot (Billingsley, Hughes), they should jump at it.

I’d also make a run at Miguel Cabrera, using Carmona as bait. None of the other teams going after Cabrera are going to offer up a guy with a Cy Young candidate season on his resume. But of course, the Indians can afford to lose Carmona (partly because he’s not the ace people might think he is, and partly because of their depth).

11-23-2007, 11:21 PM	#1 (permalink)
Heltonfan Moderator Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Yerevan, Armenia Posts: 847	Team Spotlight: Cleveland Indians The Indians are one of the best organizations in the game. Mark Shapiro’s trading record is second to none, and with the exception of the apparent fixation on a “proven closer” (how else do you explain Wickman and Borowski?), the Indians have shown themselves to be pretty statistically savvy. They’re easily the favorites in the AL Central, and the future, even assuming that C.C. Sabathia leaves next winter, is quite bright. Summary Statistics Rotation: +18 Bullpen: -3 Lineup: +42 Bench: +11 Defense: +5 W-L record: 89-73 Rotation Sabathia 3.08 Carmona 3.81 Westbrook 3.85 Lee 4.35 Byrd 4.54 Carmona was a Cy Young candidate this year. Westbrook went 6-9 with a 4.32 ERA. And yet they project to be basically the same pitcher. There are several reasons for this: 1)Carmona was incredibly lucky this year, both in terms of BABIP and situational luck. His ERA should have been a run higher than it actually was. 2)Westbrook has a track record. Carmona doesn’t. 3)Component-wise, they are basically the same pitcher. Carmona struck out 15% of the batters he faced, and walked 8%. Westbrook struck out 14% and walked 9%. And both are extreme groundballers. The net effect of all this is that Carmona, in all likelihood, is one of the more overrated pitchers around right now. The Indians also have plenty of depth behind the front five, with youngsters Jeremy Sowers (4.54), Aaron Laffey (4.65), and Adam Miller (4.58). I absolutely loathe Sowers as a pitcher, though; the guy has AA stuff, and doesn’t locate it particularly well. It’s pathetic. It amazes me that he gets anyone out at all. He’s a distant #8 on this depth chart, as far as I’m concerned. Bullpen Borowski 4.16 Betancourt 2.64 Perez 3.85 Fultz 3.82 Mastny 3.62 Mujica 4.08 Lewis 3.28 That’s a pretty good bullpen. It would be a great one if Borowski and Betancourt switched roles. Lineup C: Martinez 4.21 (.301, 0) 1B: Garko 1.00 (.266, -3) 2B: Cabrera 1.31 (.244, 4) SS: Peralta 3.32 (.281, -4) 3B: Marte 1.38 (.254, -1) LF: Francisco 1.27 (.260, -1) CF: Sizemore 5.20 (.309, 0) RF: Gutierrez 2.18 (.258, 8) DH: Hafner 4.29 (.319) Hafner’s ABR dropped 79 points from 2006 to 2007. He’s a great rebound candidate. This is an easy group of players to get a handle on. Great talent up the middle, mediocre on the corners. Bench Shoppach .254 Barfield .244 Blake .256 Dellucci .257 Kelly Shoppach is one of the top 10 catchers in baseball right now. Having him as a backup is quite a luxury. If I Were In Charge, I Would: The Indians are good enough that they don’t have to do much on the free agent market. They could use a quality corner outfielder, but with Milton Bradley out of the picture (due to his history with Wedge), the only free agent who fits that description is Fukudome. So, target Fukudome… but if they don’t get him, it’s no tragedy. Now, here’s where things get interesting. The Johan Santana situation has gotten tons of media attention, and rightfully so. But what seems to have gone largely ignored is the fact that the Indians, with Sabathia, have the same issue to address; if anything, C.C. should have a little more trade value than Johan, because he’s a bit younger and is making $3 million less next year. There are all kinds of options here. But the crucial difference between the Indians and Twins is that the Indians can easily justify holding onto their ace. So if they don’t find a deal to their liking, it’s no great loss. But they absolutely should explore things a little. If they can get a package that includes someone who could quite competently fill Sabathia’s rotation spot (Billingsley, Hughes), they should jump at it. I’d also make a run at Miguel Cabrera, using Carmona as bait. None of the other teams going after Cabrera are going to offer up a guy with a Cy Young candidate season on his resume. But of course, the Indians can afford to lose Carmona (partly because he’s not the ace people might think he is, and partly because of their depth).