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Heltonfan · 11-11-2007, 05:17 AM

A-Rod may be gone, but in many ways, the Yankees are in better shape than they’ve been in quite some time.

Summary Statistics
Rotation +51
Bullpen -11
Lineup +72
Bench -1
Defense -18
W-L record: 91-71

No A-Rod, no Clemens, no Rivera… still a great team.

Rotation

Wang 3.47
Hughes 3.26
Mussina 3.97
Kennedy 3.89
Chamberlain 3.31

Yes, the projections like Phil Hughes. A lot. He had a 2.83 ERC this year, and 3.13 last year… much of that was BABIP-driven, but of course, a 22-year-old with those numbers is going to project a lot better than a 28-year-old.

The Yankees caught a break when Pettitte declined his option – Chamberlain’s presence means that they actually don’t project any worse without Pettitte than they did with him. That’s not to say that Pettitte would be worthless, of course (depth has value), but he sure wouldn’t be worth paying $22 million for. Again, the luxury tax is a huge factor here. $16 million for Pettitte seems vaguely tolerable; $22 million, not so much.

My guess is that the projections are overrating Hughes, Chamberlain, and Kennedy a bit, but still, this is probably the best starting rotation in all of baseball. They have no depth, but the front five is fantastic.

Bullpen

Ramirez 2.93
Farnsworth 3.98
Britton 3.68
Veras 4.33
Bruney 4.57
Henn 4.67
Igawa 5.02

They could really use some depth, but there are some very good arms here. I’ve been waxing poetic about Edwar Ramirez for the past two weeks or so; the guy had 102 strikeouts in 57 innings between AA and AAA. That’s just ridiculous.

Lineup

C: Posada 3.61 (.289, 1)
1B: Duncan 1.28 (.256, 6)
2B: Cano 4.47 (.294, 2)
SS: Jeter 3.41 (.290, -10)
3B: Betemit 1.56 (.267, -5)
LF: Matsui 2.42 (.291, -7)
CF: Cabrera 2.38 (.269, -1)
RF: Abreu 2.42 (.288, -6)
DH: Giambi 2.53 (.291)

As I mentioned earlier, I’m giving them Posada (even though he’s a free agent) because there’s just no one else out there, either in the organization or on the FA market, who I can imagine the Yankees tolerating as their everyday catcher.

Cashman has said that Melky Cabrera is his everyday CF, which presumably makes Damon a fourth outfielder/trade bait. And it’s the right decision. Damon would project at 2.04 WAR as a full-time player; he’s still quite useful, just not good enough to start for the Yankees anymore.

So Robinson Cano has become the best player on the best team in baseball. That’s pretty incredible, given where he was three years ago.

Bench

Molina .208
Gonzalez .220
Sardinha .238
Damon .272

Jose Molina is a free agent; he’s included on the projected roster for the same reason Posada is.

If I Were in Charge, I Would: Sign Posada. Ride it out with Betemit at 3B; the upgrade to Atkins/Chavez/whoever isn’t worth the likely cost.

Add a pitcher; because of the flexibility provided by Chamberlain, that pitcher can be either a starter or a top reliever. So their choices are a) Rivera, b) Cordero, c) Gagne, or d) Lohse/Silva/Kuroda/Colon/whatever. Looking at those options, it’s pretty clear that adding a starter doesn’t make much sense; the Yankees need to be targeting guys who give them a leg up in October, and league-average pitchers don’t do that. I’d just bring Rivera back; he’s the best reliever available, he’s not showing any signs of decline, and it’s hard to envision him asking for much more than the 3 years/$37.5 million that I deemed his fair market value earlier in this thread.

Do not, under any circumstances, part with Hughes, Chamberlain, or Kennedy. Not even for Johan or Bedard. The Yankees are plenty good enough to make the playoffs without sacrificing their future.

See what the market is for Damon. Anything they can get for him is a plus.

Finally, sign Bonds (because there’s absolutely no reason not to) and see what it would take to acquire Tejada. If they can get him without giving up one of the three young pitchers, they should do it.

11-11-2007, 05:17 AM	#1 (permalink)
Heltonfan Moderator Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Yerevan, Armenia Posts: 847	Team Spotlight: New York Yankees A-Rod may be gone, but in many ways, the Yankees are in better shape than they’ve been in quite some time. Summary Statistics Rotation +51 Bullpen -11 Lineup +72 Bench -1 Defense -18 W-L record: 91-71 No A-Rod, no Clemens, no Rivera… still a great team. Rotation Wang 3.47 Hughes 3.26 Mussina 3.97 Kennedy 3.89 Chamberlain 3.31 Yes, the projections like Phil Hughes. A lot. He had a 2.83 ERC this year, and 3.13 last year… much of that was BABIP-driven, but of course, a 22-year-old with those numbers is going to project a lot better than a 28-year-old. The Yankees caught a break when Pettitte declined his option – Chamberlain’s presence means that they actually don’t project any worse without Pettitte than they did with him. That’s not to say that Pettitte would be worthless, of course (depth has value), but he sure wouldn’t be worth paying $22 million for. Again, the luxury tax is a huge factor here. $16 million for Pettitte seems vaguely tolerable; $22 million, not so much. My guess is that the projections are overrating Hughes, Chamberlain, and Kennedy a bit, but still, this is probably the best starting rotation in all of baseball. They have no depth, but the front five is fantastic. Bullpen Ramirez 2.93 Farnsworth 3.98 Britton 3.68 Veras 4.33 Bruney 4.57 Henn 4.67 Igawa 5.02 They could really use some depth, but there are some very good arms here. I’ve been waxing poetic about Edwar Ramirez for the past two weeks or so; the guy had 102 strikeouts in 57 innings between AA and AAA. That’s just ridiculous. Lineup C: Posada 3.61 (.289, 1) 1B: Duncan 1.28 (.256, 6) 2B: Cano 4.47 (.294, 2) SS: Jeter 3.41 (.290, -10) 3B: Betemit 1.56 (.267, -5) LF: Matsui 2.42 (.291, -7) CF: Cabrera 2.38 (.269, -1) RF: Abreu 2.42 (.288, -6) DH: Giambi 2.53 (.291) As I mentioned earlier, I’m giving them Posada (even though he’s a free agent) because there’s just no one else out there, either in the organization or on the FA market, who I can imagine the Yankees tolerating as their everyday catcher. Cashman has said that Melky Cabrera is his everyday CF, which presumably makes Damon a fourth outfielder/trade bait. And it’s the right decision. Damon would project at 2.04 WAR as a full-time player; he’s still quite useful, just not good enough to start for the Yankees anymore. So Robinson Cano has become the best player on the best team in baseball. That’s pretty incredible, given where he was three years ago. Bench Molina .208 Gonzalez .220 Sardinha .238 Damon .272 Jose Molina is a free agent; he’s included on the projected roster for the same reason Posada is. If I Were in Charge, I Would: Sign Posada. Ride it out with Betemit at 3B; the upgrade to Atkins/Chavez/whoever isn’t worth the likely cost. Add a pitcher; because of the flexibility provided by Chamberlain, that pitcher can be either a starter or a top reliever. So their choices are a) Rivera, b) Cordero, c) Gagne, or d) Lohse/Silva/Kuroda/Colon/whatever. Looking at those options, it’s pretty clear that adding a starter doesn’t make much sense; the Yankees need to be targeting guys who give them a leg up in October, and league-average pitchers don’t do that. I’d just bring Rivera back; he’s the best reliever available, he’s not showing any signs of decline, and it’s hard to envision him asking for much more than the 3 years/$37.5 million that I deemed his fair market value earlier in this thread. Do not, under any circumstances, part with Hughes, Chamberlain, or Kennedy. Not even for Johan or Bedard. The Yankees are plenty good enough to make the playoffs without sacrificing their future. See what the market is for Damon. Anything they can get for him is a plus. Finally, sign Bonds (because there’s absolutely no reason not to) and see what it would take to acquire Tejada. If they can get him without giving up one of the three young pitchers, they should do it.