[TheIncredibleRox]

My take on the trade;

--I certainly like Tavares going forward better than Sullivan. HF has given the statistical argument, so I won't repeat it here (our spreadsheets are very similar), but there are a couple things outside of that which I feel work in Tavares' favor.

For one, I think you'll see some Aaron Miles effect-- that is, Tavares could well hit .300 with our gigantic outfield, considering his propensity for dying liners and the fact that he does a decent job putting the ball in play in general. Combine that with his seemingly evolving plate discipline, and a .360 OBP isn't out of the question. That would be huge.

#2... the sabermetric community isn't big on lineup effects--- e.g. protection, whether or not batting order matters all that much, etc. In general, I agree, but here's one effect that I believe exists; when you have a burner--Mr. Wily "Coyote" Taveras--on base, the guy at the plate will see more fastballs. Is this any kind of huge effect? No. But I think it matters.

--Hirsh looks good. The funny thing is, HR prevention was one of his largest assets in the Minors, and his biggest liability in the Majors. Chalk that up to small sample size and rookie jitters in the show. I guess I'm just saying this-- I hope Mr. Hirsh is over his rookie jitters. To contend, we need him to be good, not merely passable. Would really take some weight off the shoulders of Cook and Francis.

--Buchholz is quality depth, although the homeritis looks pretty crippling. With the shoulder concerns, and the fact that he no longer profiles as what one might consider an "impact starter," I wonder if a bullpen transition might be worth a shot. For a guy who was always regarded as having great "stuff," it deserves some consideration. If not, he might be packaged (w/ Barmes? Carroll? Sullivan) for a nice arm in the pen. Buchholz and Barmes for Frank Francisco? I think that looks great.

Overall, I gve the trade a B-. Pretty darn good return, and we create a little room in our budget. The only reason it doesn't get a higher grade is that while we received several useful players, no serious impact players or potential "studs" came our way, and with the pitching market this offseason, I certainly think we could have pulled that off.

*********
From here on out:

--I figure that we have $7-$9 mil left to spend this offseason.
--I'd still like to upgrade 2B.
--One more late-inning RP would be nice.

What I'd do:

--Marcus Giles just got non-tendered, and I'd make a run at him. Besides the fact that he has the ability to be a fabulous offensive 2B, San Diego is going to make a big push for him.

I'd go as high as either 2 years, $15 M, or 3 years, $19M.

--After that, I'd do my damndest to trade Carroll and Barmes. Let's say the aformentioned Texas deal works out. Then we trade Carroll to SD (or someone else) for a prospect.

--Sullivan is a perfectly fine fourth outfielder, so I wouldn't mind keeping him around.

--There are a number of Minor League FAs or freely available players who could contribute in the bullpen, even the 7th and 8th, and cost us next to nothing. But I'm not counting on the team being able to identify them. More realistic: take a flier on a yet who had a down year... Chris Reitsma, JC Romero, Dustin Hermanson, Arthur Rhodes, OR Rudy Seanez.

That would leave us here:

1. Taveras
2. Giles
3. Helton
4. Holliday
5. Atkins
6. Hawpe
7. Tulowitzki
8. Ianetta

Bench: Torrealba, Matsui, Sullivan, Baker, another infielder (too many possibilities to name).

1. Cook
2. Francis
3. Kim
4. Hirsh
5. Fogg

Pen
1. Fuentes
2. Francisco
3. Hawkins
4. Corpas
5. Ramirez
6. Seanez?
7. Affeldt? Martin? Bautista?

Without crunching all the numbers, I'd guess that would put us in the 85-win range.