[Heltonfan]

Much has been made about how lucky the ’07 Diamondbacks were. And make no mistake, they were a true .500 team at best. But the ’08 club looks pretty good; they’re not losing any important players, and the kids are bound to hit better than they did this year.

Summary Statistics
Rotation: +36
Bullpen: +19
Lineup: -39
Bench: +5
Defense: +16

Rotation

Webb 3.02
Davis 4.38
Gonzalez 4.25
Owings 4.26
Johnson 4.03

This is probably the best rotation in the NL; Webb is the best pitcher in baseball, and the other guys are all #4 starters at worst.

Nate Silver, in his offseason preview at BPro, said that “There’s an obvious place to upgrade in the starting pitching department; Webb, Davis, Micah Owings, and Johnson are a credible front four, but there’s a big drop-off after that.” I couldn’t disagree more. Edgar Gonzalez is a solid pitcher, and has been for several years now. Dana Eveland (4.10) looks like a league-average starter. Dustin Nippert (4.34) is in the same range. And Max Scherzer (4.54) isn’t far away. In other words, there isn’t anyone available who would represent more than a 6-7 run upgrade over the Diamondbacks’ eighth starter.

Bullpen

Valverde 3.26
Lyon 3.56
Pena 3.62
Cruz 3.63
Slaten 3.88
Peguero 4.31
Nippert 4.34

Even with the projected regression of Valverde, Lyon, Pena, and Cruz, this is the second-best bullpen in the league, behind the Dodgers.

Lineup

C: Snyder 1.68 (.239, 6)
1B: Jackson 1.64 (.276, -3)
2B: Hudson 1.98 (.258, 0)
SS: Drew 0.86 (.245, -8)
3B: Tracy 1.88 (.267, -2)
LF: Byrnes 1.88 (.252, 11)
CF: Young 2.08 (.260, 2)
RF: Quentin 0.80 (.250, 2)

We’ve seen the “too many average players” problem a couple times already, with the Red Sox and the Pirates; Arizona takes it to a new level. When Conor Jackson is your best hitter, you’ve got problems.

Even that ugly projection represents a major step forward for Drew; he’s got a long way to go to become a real asset.

Bench

Montero .235
Callaspo .240
Reynolds .259
Upton .246
Salazar .234

Not a bad group.

If I Were in Charge, I Would: Not do very much. The rotation is too good to be significantly upgraded. So is the bullpen. So are C, 1B, 2B, 3B, LF, and CF. Making a move at SS is out of the question because there’s nothing available, and they can’t give up on Drew’s potential. Which leaves RF as the lone position where something could be done.

So I’d look to deal Doug Davis for a bat… as previously mentioned, the D’Backs have plenty of rotation depth, so losing Davis shouldn’t hurt them at all. The Tigers might be interested; Marcus Thames or Ryan Raburn would be a nice return for Davis. If the Astros go ahead with their insane plan of signing one of the big-name free agent center fielders, Luke Scott will be available, and the ‘Stros need starting pitching in the worst way. Philadelphia (for Werth) might be another fit.

And the follow-up move: with the losses of Davis and Livan Hernandez, the D’Backs would have $15 million coming off the books. That should be enough to allow them to land Fukudome or Bonds…or they could go the cheaper route and gamble on Bradley. That would be my preference.

Between Young, a big-name free agent OF signing, Byrnes, and the guy they get for Davis, there would be no room for Justin Upton… but that’s just fine. In fact, I’d make a point of keeping Upton down in AAA long enough to push his free agency back to 2015. And Byrnes needs to be dealt; that contract extension was a mistake, but it’s not too late to undo it. Surely there’s a team out there that would value him as a cheaper alternative to Hunter/Jones/Rowand.