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Heltonfan · 11-04-2007, 12:48 AM

I've settled on an order in which to do these team overviews; I'm going in descending order of the difference between the team's '07 performance and their '08 projection. The Rays come out first in that measure by a country mile; let's just say that if I were to put out a Prospectus-style preview book next winter, I think the Rays would be the odds-on favorites to be prominently mentioned on the back cover as an example of the system's clairvoyance.

Onto the defending champs. We've already discussed the Red Sox a little... here's the full analysis.

Summary Statistics
Rotation: +20
Bullpen: +5
Lineup: +57
Bench: -11
Defense: -31
W-L record: 86-76

Rotation

Matsuzaka 3.32
Beckett 3.35
Buchholz 4.17
Wakefield 4.35
Tavarez 4.36

Even without Schilling, that's a fine rotation. And Clay Buchholz obviously has the potential to beat his projection handily. So does Wakefield; the spreadsheet doesn't know that he's a fundamentally different animal. But of course, there are substantial risks associated with both of those guys; even if they beat their ERC projections, they might only combine for 250 innings instead of 380. All told, I think the +20 figure given above is a pretty good assessment of this rotation.

Bullpen

Papelbon 1.99
Delcarmen 3.49
Okajima 4.05
Lopez 4.26
Lester 4.56
Snyder 4.61
Corey 4.81

That's a heck of a regression for Okajima; the system is (understandably) quite rigid in its belief that guys in their 30s shouldn't have breakout years. Anyway, the picture here is perfectly clear: after Papelbon, there's not much to like. They could really use some added depth in the pen.

Lineup

C: Varitek 1.69 (.253, 0)
1B: Ellsbury 1.16 (.261, 2)
2B: Pedroia 3.11 (.274, 1)
SS: Lugo 1.24 (.240, -1)
3B: Youkilis 2.31 (.284, -8)
LF: Ramirez 2.33 (.309, -19)
CF: Crisp 1.69 (.260, -3)
RF: Drew 1.76 (.280, -7)
DH: Ortiz 5.82 (.344)

Before anyone asks: no, I don't expect Ellsbury to see a single inning at 1B. He's listed there as a placeholder, because we know they're going to add someone, and running the projections with Ellsbury at 1B gives a better representation of the club's talent level than leaving the position vacant.

Anyway, this is where it becomes clear that the 2008 Red Sox, as currently constructed, are not an elite team; aside from Ortiz, this group of position players is average at best. And they're average-ish even though I'm predicting substantial rebounds for three guys in their 30s (Manny, Drew, and Lugo); I think it's pretty unlikely that I'm significantly underrating the group.

Bench

Mirabelli .191
Carter .248
Cora .201
Moss .249

Mirabelli is a free agent, but I'm assuming that he'll be back since Wakefield is returning. Chris Carter is the guy they got in exchange for Wily Mo; he looks to be a decent hitter.

If I Were in Charge, I Would: Gosh, this is tough. A lot tougher than the Rays to figure out, at least. This is not an easy team to upgrade, because the position players are all average-ish; there's no one position at which they're starting some replacement-level schmuck who can easily be improved upon. The weakest links are 1B and SS. There are no decent shortstops available on the free agent market... and it would appear that the only way to fix the 1B problem is to sign a 3B and let Youkilis remain at first. But of course, there are only two free agent third basemen of any value. One is Lowell, who is probably going to demand something like a 4/48 contract when he's probably worth about half that much. So that's not an option. The other guy out there, of course, is A-Rod. And while Boston is a perfect destination for A-Rod in some ways (he might actually be worth $30-35 million a year to them, and they're one of the few teams who have that kind of money), I can't recommend that they take the plunge.

So the guys they should go after, then, are:
- Schilling. 1 year, $14-15 million is perfectly harmless. Curt's still a very good pitcher.
- Fukudome and Bradley. The only other true impact players out there. No reason not to make serious offers to both of them and see what comes of it.
- Juan Rincon. Coming off a terrible season, I'll bet he could be had fairly cheaply. And if he rebounds, he's the solid 7th-8th inning guy they need.

And there are a couple other things that need to be done:

- Get rid of Alex Cora. Just a terrible player; they can't let him continue getting 200 at-bats a year. Give the utility infield spot to Jed Lowrie; that's an upgrade of almost a full win, right there.

- Get Manny the hell out of LF. I think I'd try him at 1B, but whether he moves to 1B or to another team isn't nearly as important as that he moves somewhere.

If they follow this plan, assuming they're successful in landing one of Fukudome/Bradley, they'll probably have a 92-93 win team, without significantly increasing the payroll. I think that's about as good an outcome as one could realistically hope for (keep in mind that they're over the luxury tax threshold, so every dollar saved is really $1.40).

11-04-2007, 12:48 AM	#1 (permalink)
Heltonfan Moderator Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Yerevan, Armenia Posts: 846	Team Spotlight: Boston Red Sox I've settled on an order in which to do these team overviews; I'm going in descending order of the difference between the team's '07 performance and their '08 projection. The Rays come out first in that measure by a country mile; let's just say that if I were to put out a Prospectus-style preview book next winter, I think the Rays would be the odds-on favorites to be prominently mentioned on the back cover as an example of the system's clairvoyance. Onto the defending champs. We've already discussed the Red Sox a little... here's the full analysis. Summary Statistics Rotation: +20 Bullpen: +5 Lineup: +57 Bench: -11 Defense: -31 W-L record: 86-76 Rotation Matsuzaka 3.32 Beckett 3.35 Buchholz 4.17 Wakefield 4.35 Tavarez 4.36 Even without Schilling, that's a fine rotation. And Clay Buchholz obviously has the potential to beat his projection handily. So does Wakefield; the spreadsheet doesn't know that he's a fundamentally different animal. But of course, there are substantial risks associated with both of those guys; even if they beat their ERC projections, they might only combine for 250 innings instead of 380. All told, I think the +20 figure given above is a pretty good assessment of this rotation. Bullpen Papelbon 1.99 Delcarmen 3.49 Okajima 4.05 Lopez 4.26 Lester 4.56 Snyder 4.61 Corey 4.81 That's a heck of a regression for Okajima; the system is (understandably) quite rigid in its belief that guys in their 30s shouldn't have breakout years. Anyway, the picture here is perfectly clear: after Papelbon, there's not much to like. They could really use some added depth in the pen. Lineup C: Varitek 1.69 (.253, 0) 1B: Ellsbury 1.16 (.261, 2) 2B: Pedroia 3.11 (.274, 1) SS: Lugo 1.24 (.240, -1) 3B: Youkilis 2.31 (.284, -8) LF: Ramirez 2.33 (.309, -19) CF: Crisp 1.69 (.260, -3) RF: Drew 1.76 (.280, -7) DH: Ortiz 5.82 (.344) Before anyone asks: no, I don't expect Ellsbury to see a single inning at 1B. He's listed there as a placeholder, because we know they're going to add someone, and running the projections with Ellsbury at 1B gives a better representation of the club's talent level than leaving the position vacant. Anyway, this is where it becomes clear that the 2008 Red Sox, as currently constructed, are not an elite team; aside from Ortiz, this group of position players is average at best. And they're average-ish even though I'm predicting substantial rebounds for three guys in their 30s (Manny, Drew, and Lugo); I think it's pretty unlikely that I'm significantly underrating the group. Bench Mirabelli .191 Carter .248 Cora .201 Moss .249 Mirabelli is a free agent, but I'm assuming that he'll be back since Wakefield is returning. Chris Carter is the guy they got in exchange for Wily Mo; he looks to be a decent hitter. If I Were in Charge, I Would: Gosh, this is tough. A lot tougher than the Rays to figure out, at least. This is not an easy team to upgrade, because the position players are all average-ish; there's no one position at which they're starting some replacement-level schmuck who can easily be improved upon. The weakest links are 1B and SS. There are no decent shortstops available on the free agent market... and it would appear that the only way to fix the 1B problem is to sign a 3B and let Youkilis remain at first. But of course, there are only two free agent third basemen of any value. One is Lowell, who is probably going to demand something like a 4/48 contract when he's probably worth about half that much. So that's not an option. The other guy out there, of course, is A-Rod. And while Boston is a perfect destination for A-Rod in some ways (he might actually be worth $30-35 million a year to them, and they're one of the few teams who have that kind of money), I can't recommend that they take the plunge. So the guys they should go after, then, are: - Schilling. 1 year, $14-15 million is perfectly harmless. Curt's still a very good pitcher. - Fukudome and Bradley. The only other true impact players out there. No reason not to make serious offers to both of them and see what comes of it. - Juan Rincon. Coming off a terrible season, I'll bet he could be had fairly cheaply. And if he rebounds, he's the solid 7th-8th inning guy they need. And there are a couple other things that need to be done: - Get rid of Alex Cora. Just a terrible player; they can't let him continue getting 200 at-bats a year. Give the utility infield spot to Jed Lowrie; that's an upgrade of almost a full win, right there. - Get Manny the hell out of LF. I think I'd try him at 1B, but whether he moves to 1B or to another team isn't nearly as important as that he moves somewhere. If they follow this plan, assuming they're successful in landing one of Fukudome/Bradley, they'll probably have a 92-93 win team, without significantly increasing the payroll. I think that's about as good an outcome as one could realistically hope for (keep in mind that they're over the luxury tax threshold, so every dollar saved is really $1.40).