FanHome - View Single Post - Projecting and Analyzing the Free Agents

Heltonfan · 10-29-2007, 01:21 AM

Season's over, time to look forward to next year. Here are my 2008 projections: Google Docs - 2008projections

I'm excited about this year's set of projections; I made a couple significant changes.

- The superiority of the AL is now built into the individual player projections. Projections are made for a completely neutral environment; that is, a guy with a .263 ABR projection (the yellow-highlighted column in the spreadsheet) is an average MLB hitter, but he'd be expected to hit roughly .260 in the AL and .266 in the NL. An average pitcher (4.00 ERC) would be around 3.87 in the NL and 4.13 in the AL.

- I revamped the aging patterns. The old system had been far too kind to guys over 35. Now, substantial decline is expected; for instance, seven years from now, A-Rod projects to be roughly an average player.

Current projected standings, with free agents not assigned to any team:

NYY 91, BOS 86, TB 85, TOR 82, BAL 73
CLE 89, DET 86, MIN 80, CWS 73, KC 72
LAA 90, OAK 89, SEA 75, TEX 75

ATL 90, NYM 83, PHI 80, FLA 77, WSH 73
CHC 86, MIL 83, CIN 79, PIT 77, STL 73, HOU 70
SD 87, LAD 86, ARI 84, COL 84, SF 73

I'll have more stuff about the free agent market later.

10-29-2007, 01:21 AM	#1 (permalink)
Heltonfan Moderator Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Yerevan, Armenia Posts: 833	Projecting and Analyzing the Free Agents - Team projections/needs added Season's over, time to look forward to next year. Here are my 2008 projections: Google Docs - 2008projections I'm excited about this year's set of projections; I made a couple significant changes. - The superiority of the AL is now built into the individual player projections. Projections are made for a completely neutral environment; that is, a guy with a .263 ABR projection (the yellow-highlighted column in the spreadsheet) is an average MLB hitter, but he'd be expected to hit roughly .260 in the AL and .266 in the NL. An average pitcher (4.00 ERC) would be around 3.87 in the NL and 4.13 in the AL. - I revamped the aging patterns. The old system had been far too kind to guys over 35. Now, substantial decline is expected; for instance, seven years from now, A-Rod projects to be roughly an average player. Current projected standings, with free agents not assigned to any team: NYY 91, BOS 86, TB 85, TOR 82, BAL 73 CLE 89, DET 86, MIN 80, CWS 73, KC 72 LAA 90, OAK 89, SEA 75, TEX 75 ATL 90, NYM 83, PHI 80, FLA 77, WSH 73 CHC 86, MIL 83, CIN 79, PIT 77, STL 73, HOU 70 SD 87, LAD 86, ARI 84, COL 84, SF 73 I'll have more stuff about the free agent market later.