Quote:
Originally Posted by nanwynnfan
The game also has a defensive side; and Asburn typically sved his team anywhere from 20-40 runs above average in CF. I went with 23 [conservative] for 9 years of peak = 23*9 = +207 Runs saved.
Murphy in his prime batting years was defense neutral = +0. Fold in the offense + Defense and we get:
Ashburn = 86.7 + 23 = 109.70
Murphy = 101.52 + 0 = 101.52
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I don't see anything fundamentally wrong with your methodology, but I'm wondering if you adjusted for the league norms, and then I would also weight each of their top seasons a little more.
Strikeouts don't really add much to the equation, since flyouts and groundouts are more valuable than them in only about 1-2% of all situations.
It would also be interesting to study any natural curves in offense, to where a certain level of offense from a player at a given position gets progressively more detrimental to the rest of the lineup. We're assuming that it's a steady slope, but there has to be a point where it starts curving. For example, a center fielder with a 60.0 offense and 40.0 defense is probably hurting the lineup too much for his compensatory fielding to kick in the assumed difference.
By the way, if you consider Ashburn a no-doubter Hall of Famer at 109, wouldn't that make Murphy at least a borderline candidate at 101? Where's your cutoff for CF?