FanHome - View Single Post - Projecting and Analyzing the Free Agents

Heltonfan · 10-30-2007, 03:54 AM

Alright, let's figure out some contracts.

Last year, the going rate on the free agent market was $4.7 million per win (I had calculated $4.3m/win previously, but that was using the overly generous aging patterns). This year, with a little more inflation, we should be right around the $5 million per win mark. So, using $5m/win as a target, here's what these guys are worth (making reasonable assumptions about contract length):

A-Rod: 7 years, $201 million. He'll probably get more than that, of course... but the projection system understands that paying $30 million a year for a guy in his late 30s is insane.

Fukudome: 4 years, $91 million. This is very interesting, because I can't imagine he'll get anywhere near that. But even if we chop 20 points off his ABR projection, putting him at .291 (Hideki Matsui level), he's still a $15 million a year guy. Like I said, out of our price range, but I suspect he'll be a bargain for whoever ends up with him.

Hunter: 5 years, $73 million. Nothing controversial here.

Bradley: 3 years, $42 million. This is what he's worth if he only gets 400 PA a year; if he can stay healthy for a full season, he's a $20 million player like Fukudome. And, like Fukudome, I suspect that he'll be one of this winter's bargains.

Posada: 3 years, $51 million. Another bargain candidate; I can't imagine him actually getting that much.

Rivera: 3 years, $37 million.
Lohse: 3 years, $29 million.
Silva: 3 years, $25 million.
Cameron: 3 years, $25 million.
Cordero: 3 years, $24 million.
Patterson: 3 years, $21 million.

Iguchi: 3 years, $25 million. But we might be able to get him for half that. This is why I keep touting him.

Rowand: 5 years, $24 million. He's a below-average player on the wrong side of 30. By 2009, he'll be a fourth outfielder. And he's likely to get at least $50 million. This has disaster written all over it.

Jones: 5 years, $23 million. See above. Andruw is the odds-on favorite to be this winter's biggest albatross.

Bonds: 1 year, $18 million.
Schilling: 1 year, $15 million.

Lowell: 3 years, $22 million. Another guy likely to be overpaid.

Looking through this, I think the $5m/win level makes a lot of sense. I've listed about as many likely albatrosses as likely bargains, so the overall average is about right.

10-30-2007, 03:54 AM	#3 (permalink)
Heltonfan Moderator Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Yerevan, Armenia Posts: 833	Alright, let's figure out some contracts. Last year, the going rate on the free agent market was $4.7 million per win (I had calculated $4.3m/win previously, but that was using the overly generous aging patterns). This year, with a little more inflation, we should be right around the $5 million per win mark. So, using $5m/win as a target, here's what these guys are worth (making reasonable assumptions about contract length): A-Rod: 7 years, $201 million. He'll probably get more than that, of course... but the projection system understands that paying $30 million a year for a guy in his late 30s is insane. Fukudome: 4 years, $91 million. This is very interesting, because I can't imagine he'll get anywhere near that. But even if we chop 20 points off his ABR projection, putting him at .291 (Hideki Matsui level), he's still a $15 million a year guy. Like I said, out of our price range, but I suspect he'll be a bargain for whoever ends up with him. Hunter: 5 years, $73 million. Nothing controversial here. Bradley: 3 years, $42 million. This is what he's worth if he only gets 400 PA a year; if he can stay healthy for a full season, he's a $20 million player like Fukudome. And, like Fukudome, I suspect that he'll be one of this winter's bargains. Posada: 3 years, $51 million. Another bargain candidate; I can't imagine him actually getting that much. Rivera: 3 years, $37 million. Lohse: 3 years, $29 million. Silva: 3 years, $25 million. Cameron: 3 years, $25 million. Cordero: 3 years, $24 million. Patterson: 3 years, $21 million. Iguchi: 3 years, $25 million. But we might be able to get him for half that. This is why I keep touting him. Rowand: 5 years, $24 million. He's a below-average player on the wrong side of 30. By 2009, he'll be a fourth outfielder. And he's likely to get at least $50 million. This has disaster written all over it. Jones: 5 years, $23 million. See above. Andruw is the odds-on favorite to be this winter's biggest albatross. Bonds: 1 year, $18 million. Schilling: 1 year, $15 million. Lowell: 3 years, $22 million. Another guy likely to be overpaid. Looking through this, I think the $5m/win level makes a lot of sense. I've listed about as many likely albatrosses as likely bargains, so the overall average is about right.