[Heltonfan]

The following is a list of the top free agents, ranked by projected 2008 wins above replacement level (WAR). For these purposes, every free agent is projected to play a full season; obviously, in some cases (Bonds, Bradley, Castro), the numbers should be adjusted downward to account for their lower playing time.

I've listed everyone at each position who projects at 1 WAR or higher. Keep in mind that an average everyday player is around the 2 WAR level; this is a very weak market.

SP

Schilling, Curt 3.04
Kuroda, Hiroki 2.27
Lohse, Kyle 2.08
Rogers, Kenny 1.96
Silva, Carlos 1.82
Garcia, Freddy 1.78
Colon, Bartolo 1.43
Jennings, Jason 1.37
Lieber, Jon 1.29
Clement, Matt 1.17
Kennedy, Joe 1.12
Glavine, Tom 1.02

No real surprises here. I'm not sure if Kuroda has decided to come to the majors, but he's been rumored to, and he looks like a league-average starter. Which in this market is a rare commodity indeed.

RP

Rivera, Mariano 2.44
Cordero, Francisco 1.63
Gagne, Eric 1.57
Iwase, Hitoki 1.39
Percival, Troy 1.22

Percival had a tremendous comeback year. Hitoki Iwase has put up some tremendous numbers in Japan; he's not another Saito, but he could be another Otsuka. And yes, the projections like Gagne quite a bit. Why shouldn't they? He averaged a strikeout per inning with a very low HR rate this year.

C

Posada, Jorge 3.61
Castro, Ramon 1.73
Barajas, Rod 1.00

If Posada decides to leave the Bronx, we could have a very interesting bidding war on our hands. The guy is a stud, and there are plenty of contending teams (Brewers, Mets, Devil Rays - yes, the Rays are contenders) in need of a catcher. Ramon Castro deserves a starting job somewhere, but he probably won't get one.

1B

None. This is the worst crop of free agents at one position that I've ever seen. The best guy out there is Mike Sweeney, who's maybe a couple runs above replacement level. This is why the Tigers moving Guillen to first base actually makes sense; there's just nothing out there.

2B

Iguchi, Tadahito 1.93
Castillo, Luis 1.28
Matsui, Kazuo 1.05

Iguchi fell off the radar after becoming a backup in Philly, but he's a fine player.

SS

None. David Eckstein is the best out there, at 0.66 WAR.

3B

Rodriguez, Alex 5.89
Lowell, Mike 1.85

That's a massive regression for Lowell; that awful 2005 season, combined with his age, just kills his projection.

LF

Bonds, Barry 4.44
Bradley, Milton 4.15

That represents a substantial decline for Bonds. Bradley is a hell of a ballplayer; he's coming off an ACL tear, and he's injury-prone anyway, so expecting a full season is quite unrealistic, but even if he can only stay healthy for two thirds of a season, he's an extremely valuable player.

CF

Hunter, Torii 3.43
Cameron, Mike 2.07
Rowand, Aaron 1.52
Jones, Andruw 1.49
Patterson, Corey 1.48

Finally, things get interesting. We've been seeing Hunter and Jones lumped together as top free agent CFs for a long time now; obviously, the projections disagree. There are a couple reasons for this: first, the ZRs suggest that Hunter is about 10 runs better defensively. Andruw has rated as a below average defender in three of the past four years. The second reason is simple: Andruw hit .222/.307/.413 this year. Hunter hit .287/.331/.505, playing in the stronger league.

Obviously, the projection system doesn't think Rowand's offensive breakthrough is for real. Nor does it think he's anything special defensively. Jones and Rowand are likely to be two of the most overpaid players on the market.

RF

Fukudome, Kosuke 4.45
Kielty, Bobby 1.01

As discussed above, Fukudome's a tremendous player. He's coming off his worst season since 2004... and in this "down year", he put up a .440 OBP. And Japanese ball is lower scoring than MLB, so that .440 is extra impressive.

Next up: free agent valuation. Turning wins into dollars.