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Heltonfan · 10-23-2007, 12:26 AM

Here's how my projections see the lineups (numbers given are projected Wins Above Replacement over a full season):

C: Varitek 2.37, Torrealba 0.21
1B: Helton 4.02, Youkilis 2.38
2B: Pedroia 2.57, Matsui 1.43
SS: Tulowitzki 2.59, Lugo 1.69
3B: Lowell 2.76, Atkins 2.59
LF: Holliday 5.10, Ramirez 3.22
CF: Ellsbury 0.95, Taveras 0.37
RF: Hawpe 3.06, Drew 2.26
DH: Ortiz 6.01, Spilborghs 0.97

So basically, Wolf's analysis is right on. If we take these numbers, and weight them according to home-field advantage (four games with DH, three games without, and assuming that Ortiz replaces Youkilis at Coors), the Red Sox lineup totals 23.3 projected WAR, compared to our 19.9. So the difference in lineups amounts to a little over 3 wins per year.

Pitching:

Beckett 4.74, Francis 3.78
Schilling 4.34, Jimenez 0.50
Matsuzaka 4.73, Fogg 1.84
Cook 3.55, Lester 1.27

Projections are not kind to Ubaldo, and, as discussed earlier, they're probably too kind to Matsuzaka. I think it's reasonable in both of those cases to use 2007 stats rather than projections - in that case, the numbers to be used are 4.02 for Dice-K and 1.73 for Ubaldo. Repeating the process, weighting things by the number of starts we expect each pitcher to get, the Red Sox' rotation is worth a projected 15.7 wins per year; ours is worth 10.4. Which is another way of stating the blatantly obvious: there's a huge difference between Schilling/Matsuzaka and Jimenez/Fogg.

Bullpens:
Papelbon 4.32, Corpas 2.32
Fuentes 1.05, Okajima 0.75
Delcarmen 0.78, Hawkins 0.63
Timlin 0.72, Herges 0.55
Affeldt 0.76, Lopez 0.27
Speier 0.25, Snyder -0.01
Gagne 0.80, Buchholz 0.38

Totals: Boston 7.6, Colorado 5.9. We've got a slight edge after the closers, but there's a huge difference between Papelbon and Corpas. None of this should be particularly controversial.

Add it all up, and the Red Sox are 10-11 games better than we are over a full season. And this is without considering any possible difference in the quality of the leagues. So the Vegas line, with the Red Sox as 2:1 favorites, is probably about right. But flip that around: there's a one-in-three chance that we'll actually win this thing. That's plenty to get excited about, I think.

10-23-2007, 12:26 AM	#15 (permalink)
Heltonfan Moderator Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Yerevan, Armenia Posts: 855	Here's how my projections see the lineups (numbers given are projected Wins Above Replacement over a full season): C: Varitek 2.37, Torrealba 0.21 1B: Helton 4.02, Youkilis 2.38 2B: Pedroia 2.57, Matsui 1.43 SS: Tulowitzki 2.59, Lugo 1.69 3B: Lowell 2.76, Atkins 2.59 LF: Holliday 5.10, Ramirez 3.22 CF: Ellsbury 0.95, Taveras 0.37 RF: Hawpe 3.06, Drew 2.26 DH: Ortiz 6.01, Spilborghs 0.97 So basically, Wolf's analysis is right on. If we take these numbers, and weight them according to home-field advantage (four games with DH, three games without, and assuming that Ortiz replaces Youkilis at Coors), the Red Sox lineup totals 23.3 projected WAR, compared to our 19.9. So the difference in lineups amounts to a little over 3 wins per year. Pitching: Beckett 4.74, Francis 3.78 Schilling 4.34, Jimenez 0.50 Matsuzaka 4.73, Fogg 1.84 Cook 3.55, Lester 1.27 Projections are not kind to Ubaldo, and, as discussed earlier, they're probably too kind to Matsuzaka. I think it's reasonable in both of those cases to use 2007 stats rather than projections - in that case, the numbers to be used are 4.02 for Dice-K and 1.73 for Ubaldo. Repeating the process, weighting things by the number of starts we expect each pitcher to get, the Red Sox' rotation is worth a projected 15.7 wins per year; ours is worth 10.4. Which is another way of stating the blatantly obvious: there's a huge difference between Schilling/Matsuzaka and Jimenez/Fogg. Bullpens: Papelbon 4.32, Corpas 2.32 Fuentes 1.05, Okajima 0.75 Delcarmen 0.78, Hawkins 0.63 Timlin 0.72, Herges 0.55 Affeldt 0.76, Lopez 0.27 Speier 0.25, Snyder -0.01 Gagne 0.80, Buchholz 0.38 Totals: Boston 7.6, Colorado 5.9. We've got a slight edge after the closers, but there's a huge difference between Papelbon and Corpas. None of this should be particularly controversial. Add it all up, and the Red Sox are 10-11 games better than we are over a full season. And this is without considering any possible difference in the quality of the leagues. So the Vegas line, with the Red Sox as 2:1 favorites, is probably about right. But flip that around: there's a one-in-three chance that we'll actually win this thing. That's plenty to get excited about, I think.