FanHome - View Single Post

Grandstander · October 6th, 2007, 05:23 PM

Nat
It's the well-rounded ballclubs with proper motivation who win it all, nine times out of ten.
Right, like those well rounded Cardinals last season.

You write this as thought there is some agreed upon definition of what constitutes a well rounded ballclub, as well as if you were backed by statistics proving such clubs have won a majority of post season games.

I must suck the romance from your conceptions about the post season, it is indeed a crapshoot. To wit:

A team with 100 wins in the regular season has played .617 ball. In the context of a 7 game series, that is 4.3 wins.
95 win team....586....4.1 wins
90 win team....555....3.9 wins
85 win team.....525....3.7 wins

For the difference between a 4.3 win expectation and a 4.1 win expectation to manifest itself as one entire win, the teams would need to play one another at least 33 times, at which point the 100 win team could be expected to prevail 20.36 games to 19.33 games for the .586 team.

A mere 25 games would need to be played between the 100 win team and the 90 win team before a full game advantage went to the 100 win team. At that point they prevail 15.4 games to 14 games.

Finally it would take 17 games before the 100 win team prevails over the 85 win team 10.4 to 8.9 games.

And they are only playing seven games...and in the first round, they are only playing five games.

So, the supposed huge advantage of the 100 win team over the 85 win team, really isn't large enough to be felt within a seven game series. The difference between the 100 win club and the 95 win club would require nearly five World Series to be felt.

So, we may go with the romantic notions of well roundedness and clutchitudinality and out intangibilizing the other team who came to play wearing their game faces and so forth, but the math reveals a rather dry truth.

It is a crapshoot.

Earl Weaver was a great manager who had bad luck in the post season. Let us contrast Earl to say, Ozzie Guillen who is a crappy manager who had great luck in the post season.

October 6th, 2007, 05:23 PM	#5 (permalink)
Grandstander Hall of Famer Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Parts Unknown Northern California Posts: 6,640	Nat It's the well-rounded ballclubs with proper motivation who win it all, nine times out of ten. Right, like those well rounded Cardinals last season. You write this as thought there is some agreed upon definition of what constitutes a well rounded ballclub, as well as if you were backed by statistics proving such clubs have won a majority of post season games. I must suck the romance from your conceptions about the post season, it is indeed a crapshoot. To wit: A team with 100 wins in the regular season has played .617 ball. In the context of a 7 game series, that is 4.3 wins. 95 win team....586....4.1 wins 90 win team....555....3.9 wins 85 win team.....525....3.7 wins For the difference between a 4.3 win expectation and a 4.1 win expectation to manifest itself as one entire win, the teams would need to play one another at least 33 times, at which point the 100 win team could be expected to prevail 20.36 games to 19.33 games for the .586 team. A mere 25 games would need to be played between the 100 win team and the 90 win team before a full game advantage went to the 100 win team. At that point they prevail 15.4 games to 14 games. Finally it would take 17 games before the 100 win team prevails over the 85 win team 10.4 to 8.9 games. And they are only playing seven games...and in the first round, they are only playing five games. So, the supposed huge advantage of the 100 win team over the 85 win team, really isn't large enough to be felt within a seven game series. The difference between the 100 win club and the 95 win club would require nearly five World Series to be felt. So, we may go with the romantic notions of well roundedness and clutchitudinality and out intangibilizing the other team who came to play wearing their game faces and so forth, but the math reveals a rather dry truth. It is a crapshoot. Earl Weaver was a great manager who had bad luck in the post season. Let us contrast Earl to say, Ozzie Guillen who is a crappy manager who had great luck in the post season.