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Originally Posted by BigRapidsJackass
1. Virtually no criticism of Bud Black starting Tomko today instead of Peavy on 3 days rest.
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Peavy and his padre fans were extremely confident in his ability to shut down the D-Backs on 3-days rest last time. If Francis did the same thing for us and got shelled, would we be wishing for him to do it again shortly after? Maybe some would, but understandable if most wouldn't I'd think. 3-days rest historically is a bad idea anyway. You get some exceptions certainly, but last time Peavy did that I heard an interview about the history there and didn't paint a pretty picture overall. Baseball's a team sport where you can't always rely upon one guy always so heavily.
There was always going to be a tomorrow for the Padres, so they didn't necessarily have to sacrifice everything before they had to when it is do-or-die.
I don't fear Peavy tomorrow. He's a great pitcher, but hasn't especially been a very good big game pitcher. He has a 12+ ERA in 2 playoff starts, and has disappointed at some other key times like the last time he tried to go on short rest for his team.
Objectively, you'd certainly pick Peavy over Josh Fogg if you could. There certainly is a chance that Peavy does to us what Brandon Webb did to nearly end our season just days ago. There is always that chance with a brilliant pitcher.
But I've been liking Fogg on the mound in critical games this year. He seems to give this team veteran stability and confidence there. Francis has been our best guy, but even Dan O'Dowd himself challenged Francis on not coming through always at key times when he could have put himself at a higher level when all of baseball was watching. Our rookies have certainly come up big at times, including today, but I'd also feel more comfortable with Fogg than one of them tomorrow.
Who is going to win tomorrow? One game series in baseball are certainly not something to make a living predicting. Probably whichever team gets that one big inning to change the momentum of the day. We've got the better bats to make that happen, and they've got the better arms to prevent that.
Despite losing on Friday night with all that energy, I like the Rockies chances at home with a full house. The Rockies seem to be a team that plays pretty well in those environments (like Opening Day heroics) with the crowds going crazy. It certainly will be tomorrow. It'll be a historic moment for the franchise and going a long way toward turning things around again for Rockies fans either way, but I've been more optimistic about their chances this year and will remain that way tomorrow as well. Let's go Rockies!