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Old 10-01-2007, 12:06 AM   #1 (permalink)
sweick
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Thumbs up Vindication part one: Bye Bye Omar

With the end of the season that finishes the rebuilding, I'm going to go over why some controversial decisions were the correct ones to make.

Let's start with one of the more argumentative ones, letting Omar go and replacing him with Jhonny.

Jhonny Peralta is an example of what Moneyball was talking about, people keep looking at what a player can't do instead of what he can and does do. (Looking at you Sheldon Ocker.)

Let us compare the past three seasons of Omar Vizquel with the past three seasons of Jhonny. As of Saturday, Omar's combined VORP was 29.5 while Jhonny is 88.6, or a total of near 60 runs more, or about 6 wins.

Even using the hardest defensive stats on Jhonny, it is hard for Omar to overcome it. Using Dewan's Plus/Minus system, Omar would have to have made over 200 more plays than Jhonny, a play being worth about .3 of a run. While this season might not be typical, Omar as of Friday made 20+ plays above the average fielder this season while Jhonny wasn't listed with the worst, we'll assume that he's within spitting difference and give him a -15, for a 35 plays difference. Even with last season's suckatude, I don't see Jhonny 200 plays worse.

Other defensive metrics have Jhonny closer to Omar.

But even if the defense did overcome the offense, it would still have made sense to let the expensive older player leave. Jhonny has proven Shapiro correct. It allowed more flexibility while letting a young player develop.

OTOH, signing Aaron Boone...
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