Q. So we made it to a 1-game tiebreaker. Do we stand a chance against Peavy?
A. Peavy has faced the Rockies twice this year. Both times he's dominated. But over his career? He's made 12 starts against the Rockies. I count 6 excellent ones (including the 2 this year), 3 mediocre starts, and 3 downright lousy starts. He's human. I'd say there's a 50% chance he dominates again, but even when he dominates (as in last time against us) the Padres have to score runs. They're a definite favorite, but this is baseball, not the NFL or NBA which nearly always plays to form.
Q. Can Fogg keep us in the game?
A. Against the Padres this year: 1 good start (the last one; not really "good pitching" -- 3 BB/2 K -- but good results over only 5 IP), 1 bad, 1 mediocre this year. Over his career against the Padres (including this year): 3 good starts, 3 mediocre, 3 crappy.
I think everyone but Jimenez is available to bail out Josh.
Just saw Hawpe being interviewed by phone. He says "get to Peavy early." And that's right. See this:
The Baseball Analysts
Lots of data points, but it all adds up to this: his pattern is to establish the fastball early, and to move to his deadlier "out" pitches in greater proportion later. Pretty typical of a power pitcher starter. If you're a fastball hitter, look to jump on him early in the count and early in the game.