[BigRapidsJackass]

Bedir, that's the problem here. And it's why it doesn't seem so appealing to trade Helton right now. But maybe it still makes sense. It really all depends on how good you think Ian Stewart will be.

Assume you can trade Helton and assume 50% of his contract. That's about $8.3 million a year.

Helton's value this year (133 games/82% of the season played; values extrapolated to a full 162 game season, using BP's numbers only because they're readily available):

Hitting Runs Above Replacement: 43.8
Fielding: 23.1
Total: 67 Runs above Replacement

And here's Atkins' totals for this year:

Hitting RAR: 28
Fielding: -6.1
Total: 22 RAR

So let's say you do the obvious. You trade Helton (but continue to pay him $8.3 million/year), you get no player of value in return (maybe a low level prospect; we don't want someone else's problem salary since that would accomplish nothing), you slide Atkins over to 1B, and you install Stewart at 3B.

Let's further assume that Atkins is average defensively at 1B, that Stewart is average defensively at 3B, that Atkins produces offensively at roughly the average of this season (he should do better, but we'll hold his offensive production constant to allow for comparison), and that Stewart also produces at the level of Atkins 2007 season (a real leap there, since that's unlikely).

Atkins' projected offense: 28 RAR
Defense: 9 RAR (since I think that's about what the average first baseman is above replacement)
Total: 37 RAR

Stewart's projected offense: 28 RAR
Stewart's projected defense: 14 RAR (average)
Total: 42 RAR

So ... the 1B/3B combo of Helton/Atkins was (will be) about 89 runs above replacement this year. The 1B/3B combo of Atkins/Stewart would be (under my generous assumptions) 79 RAR.

Atkins' crappy defense is starting to make this look feasible, isn't it? The value of getting him off 3B and getting what we hope is an average fielder there instead is about 20 runs.

So dumping Helton loses you about 10 runs next year. But you've got that $8.3 million to spend, don't you?

Well, then what does that $8 million buy? It would've bought Ted Lilly this year ($7.5 million, although his salary goes up in the next 3 years). But then again, if you sign a Lilly type you get to not sign a Fogg type and save $3.5 million. So if you guess right and get another Ted Lilly, you come out with a pitcher who's 60 runs above replacement instead of a pitcher (Fogg) who's about 24 runs above replacement -- a net gain of 36 runs. And so the net gain from trading Helton, and then applying the cash savings to signing a better pitcher? It's 26 runs.

So:

-- if you really believe in Stewart
-- if you really believe you can be smart in finding the right free agent pitcher (Ted Lilly and not Jeff Weaver)
-- if you really believe Atkins would be at least average defensively at 1B
-- and if you really believe someone will assume half of Todd's contract, at least in the first couple years. After that, you'll probably have to pay at least 2/3 of his contract, so you're mortgaging the future a bit (not much though) to make a run for it now ...

... then you make the move, and if you turn out to be right on all counts, you've got a club that's 2-3 wins better than if you kept him.

It's a gamble, but given the cash-strapped situation of this club and the unlikelihood that they'll be able to bring in any kind of impact player unless they dump Helton, I'd be inclined to roll the dice.