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nanwynnfan · 08-16-2007, 01:33 PM

"nan - if all hitters have the same advantage, and thus overall hitting numbers inflate in these situations, it is not a "clutch" ability to also have inflated numbers. it is those who can consistently inflate at a level greater than expected that would indicate a "clutch" ability. and even then, you'd need to prove it's not just expected random anamolies on a normal curve."

kflo: You seem to have missed my point altogether. On the one hand, I stated why there SHOULD be clutch; but my entire presentation has been that, while all batters MIGHT perceive the advantages, MOST do not; and their progression is neutral to downwards as situational tensions are heightened.

The distinction here, and I'd like to make it with a cleaver is, that "clutch," being defined by very narrow qualifying situations, loses the forest for the trees.

In a 650 PA, 575 AB season, a batter may be expected to come to the plate in a neutral situation @ 350 times or more. That leaves us with 225 AB where the batter faces a situation >neutral. If we dilute that further by:

-counting only close & late situations;
-counting only close & late situations in playoff contention; [as examples]

we effectively reduce the 225 to perhaps 30-50 AB, if that. Then, applying statistical standards, we can pronounce: Insufficient data; noise; random, etc. meaning there is NO clutch.

However, I'm arguing a clutch tendency; and I'm being inclusive in that:

-for my examples, I'm using Men on, 2 Out, yielding >100 AB; and 3B<2O, yielding 10 to 30 additional AB;

-I'M weighing relative AB for a combined OPS

And, I'm inviting posters to select their own heightened-tension situations that I have not used, like RISP. bases loaded, etc.

If the batter appears to rise in OPS as situations heighten, he has that tendency and is "clutch-oriented" as opposed to an Alfonso Soriano, who swings with the same abandon in every situation, with no adjustment for situation and decreased production in heightened challenge situations.

It's a combination of confidence, contact, brains and adaptability resulting in a tendency. It is NOT a razor-shap, clearly defined and unique ability to be superb in the most challenging situatins.

08-16-2007, 01:33 PM	#79 (permalink)
nanwynnfan Senior Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 2,579	"nan - if all hitters have the same advantage, and thus overall hitting numbers inflate in these situations, it is not a "clutch" ability to also have inflated numbers. it is those who can consistently inflate at a level greater than expected that would indicate a "clutch" ability. and even then, you'd need to prove it's not just expected random anamolies on a normal curve." kflo: You seem to have missed my point altogether. On the one hand, I stated why there SHOULD be clutch; but my entire presentation has been that, while all batters MIGHT perceive the advantages, MOST do not; and their progression is neutral to downwards as situational tensions are heightened. The distinction here, and I'd like to make it with a cleaver is, that "clutch," being defined by very narrow qualifying situations, loses the forest for the trees. In a 650 PA, 575 AB season, a batter may be expected to come to the plate in a neutral situation @ 350 times or more. That leaves us with 225 AB where the batter faces a situation >neutral. If we dilute that further by: -counting only close & late situations; -counting only close & late situations in playoff contention; [as examples] we effectively reduce the 225 to perhaps 30-50 AB, if that. Then, applying statistical standards, we can pronounce: Insufficient data; noise; random, etc. meaning there is NO clutch. However, I'm arguing a clutch tendency; and I'm being inclusive in that: -for my examples, I'm using Men on, 2 Out, yielding >100 AB; and 3B<2O, yielding 10 to 30 additional AB; -I'M weighing relative AB for a combined OPS And, I'm inviting posters to select their own heightened-tension situations that I have not used, like RISP. bases loaded, etc. If the batter appears to rise in OPS as situations heighten, he has that tendency and is "clutch-oriented" as opposed to an Alfonso Soriano, who swings with the same abandon in every situation, with no adjustment for situation and decreased production in heightened challenge situations. It's a combination of confidence, contact, brains and adaptability resulting in a tendency. It is NOT a razor-shap, clearly defined and unique ability to be superb in the most challenging situatins.