FanHome - View Single Post

nanwynnfan · 08-15-2007, 10:15 AM

"Honestly folks, you are defending old wives tales and discredited conventional wisdom. You guys simply have not done your homework and read the studies. If you had, you'd see that you're wrong. I feel like Galileo being lectured by the church fathers....of course the sun orbits the earth, just look out the window."

You are on very thin ice with you presumptions that the "folks" here have not done their homework and read the studies. So you compare yourself to Galileo and the rest to the Church fathers.

I suggest that you have it in reverse. There are some here who have offered statistical data, experiential observation linked to the data, and offered interpretations based on combining the two. [More like Galileo in that there is some thought, work and consideration].

You, on the other hand, offer your vacant, condescending wisdom, in unsubstantiated opinion, and expect the readers to accept it on your say-so. [Much like the Church fathers].

Lou Gehrig raised the opinion of a club winning a pennant in the first 40 games or so. Let's take a look at that.

Say the Tigers open a season at 31-9 and the Indians open that same season at 22-18. The Tribe is 9 Games Behind in the standings; and the oddsmakers in Vegas are probably adjusting the odds downward to 7-5 for the Tigers and up to 3.5-1 for the Tribe, but they aren't fools: they know it's baseball and strange things can happen over the remaining 122 games.

Now imagine added games through the All Star break, 41 games with the Tigers adding 23-18 while the Tribe is slightly improved to 25-16. Mid season, the standings would look like this:

Detroit 54-27 .667 ---
Cleve. 47-34 .580 7GB

Hardly a runaway. A full half season left to play with the possibility of slumps, injuries, suspensions or even another club, not yet in the picture, going 31-9 over a second half surge and making it a three way race.

Teams do not win pennants over a portion of a season: they enhance their odds by gaining momentum and establishing a lead.

Red Sox, Cubs and Dodger fans can tell you just how much momentum can change over a long season.

08-15-2007, 10:15 AM	#41 (permalink)
nanwynnfan Senior Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 2,579	"Honestly folks, you are defending old wives tales and discredited conventional wisdom. You guys simply have not done your homework and read the studies. If you had, you'd see that you're wrong. I feel like Galileo being lectured by the church fathers....of course the sun orbits the earth, just look out the window." You are on very thin ice with you presumptions that the "folks" here have not done their homework and read the studies. So you compare yourself to Galileo and the rest to the Church fathers. I suggest that you have it in reverse. There are some here who have offered statistical data, experiential observation linked to the data, and offered interpretations based on combining the two. [More like Galileo in that there is some thought, work and consideration]. You, on the other hand, offer your vacant, condescending wisdom, in unsubstantiated opinion, and expect the readers to accept it on your say-so. [Much like the Church fathers]. Lou Gehrig raised the opinion of a club winning a pennant in the first 40 games or so. Let's take a look at that. Say the Tigers open a season at 31-9 and the Indians open that same season at 22-18. The Tribe is 9 Games Behind in the standings; and the oddsmakers in Vegas are probably adjusting the odds downward to 7-5 for the Tigers and up to 3.5-1 for the Tribe, but they aren't fools: they know it's baseball and strange things can happen over the remaining 122 games. Now imagine added games through the All Star break, 41 games with the Tigers adding 23-18 while the Tribe is slightly improved to 25-16. Mid season, the standings would look like this: Detroit 54-27 .667 --- Cleve. 47-34 .580 7GB Hardly a runaway. A full half season left to play with the possibility of slumps, injuries, suspensions or even another club, not yet in the picture, going 31-9 over a second half surge and making it a three way race. Teams do not win pennants over a portion of a season: they enhance their odds by gaining momentum and establishing a lead. Red Sox, Cubs and Dodger fans can tell you just how much momentum can change over a long season. Last edited by nanwynnfan; 08-15-2007 at 10:30 AM.