Quote:
Originally Posted by John Cocktoston
Going to a 4 man rotation in Spring Training to begin a season may be "forward thinking".
Going to a 4 man rotation in mid-August as you begin a stretch run is a little reckless, IMO.
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I don't buy that notion at all. 4-days rest is "FOUR DAYS REST". Who cares if it's April or August? In fact, at this time of the year, pitchers' arms are fully stretched out and they need 5-days rest less than they would in April.
Think of the math here. We are talking about 5 weeks with an off-day for the duration of the season. On second thought, the 5th week that has the DH could be handled by Buchholz, so let's count that week too. That means there are 5 games between now and the end of the season where Hurdle has two options:
1) He could choose to stay strictly with a 5-man rotation, and give those five starts to our weakest starter, say Ubaldo Jimenez.
2) He could choose to skip over this fringe starter, and give all 5 starts to the other four guys. One extra start for Morales (let's assume), Fogg, Cook, and (if done right) two extra starts for Francis.
For a team nominally in a pennant race, any good manager would choose the second option. In the second option we may get five games of a 4.15 ERA starter for 6.5 innings per game. That's 32.5 innings with with 15 earned runs allowed.
The first option gives us five games of perhaps a 6.50 ERA fringe starter for, say, an average of 5 innings per start. That is 25 innings of 18 earned runs allowed. Three more earned runs allowed than Option #2 in 7.5 fewer innings, which also taxes the bullpen more.
I dare say that the difference in these two strategies COULD (not "will") make the difference of one win in those five games. For a team in a scrum for the wild card, squeezing out one extra win could be the difference between making the playoffs and not making the playoffs.
To me, the choice is a simple one to make. Managers in contention have to pull out all the stops this time of year.