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Judging from the fact that salaries in MLB have continually increased throughout the years (even after teams came to regret the madness of the A-Rod/Manny/Hampton winter), and from the fact that the league is pulling in more revenue than ever before, I'd be surprised if the league-wide $/win goes down. But as you know, I'm no economics expert...
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I think that's right. The trend is up, up, up. Not salaries increasing geometrically, but a trend line up that is only momentarily interrupted by short bouts of fiscal discipline (or are they short bouts of collusion?).
And that's why I'm such a one-note act on the Rockies cheapskate ways.
We hear over and over and over again about "not repeating the mistakes" of the Hampton/Neagle (and, what is never mentioned but should be ... Helton) years.
But as I'm sure Roxpert knows, this is starting to sound like the guy who pats himself on the back for avoiding losses because he's had all his money in CDs and cash equivalents since the 1987 stock market plunge. He never recognizes that he lost out on two of the tremendous gains in the market over the last two decades.
I'm no genius on player projections; I'm just an informed fan. But I'll use myself as an example. After the '04 season -- when the Rockies were still acting like they'd spend $50 million or so on salary -- I suggested that Jermaine Dye would've been a good/reasonably priced acquisition. The White Sox nabbed him for 2 years/$10.5 million, with an '07 option for $6.75 million.
After his last 2 years, what would his trade value be today? Or after the '05 season? If the Rox had signed him for the '05 season, they could've dealt him for the kind of player the Marlins got last year in a number of their deals. In fact, the Marlins did exactly that with Carlos Delgado: they got one good season out of him at a market rate, then with salaries continuously increasing they were able not only to get out of the rest of his contract, but also get a couple good prospects from the Mets.
So "standing pat" is not risk free. There's an opportunity cost to doing nothing. Salaries keep going up, and the Rockies annual post-season dumpster dive gets more and more expensive. Washed up relievers could be acquired for under a million bucks after the '03 season (Turk Wendell). The same crap cost $2.5 million after '05 (Jose Mesa) and $3.5 million (LaTroy Hawkins -- not quite as obviously crap, but I'm not holding out much hope) after '06. Meanwhile, the Bobby Howrys of the world are looking like bargains, and our cheapskate ownership hasn't locked any of them up.
8 year contracts for pitchers? Stupid.
Not "laddering" your contracts, and being a slave to the market for player salaries every offseason? Stupid too.