Zen has a great look at the Celtics recent slide from astonishing to merely average (4-4 as of the write-up) noting the five reasins why they are struggling the most right now

1 - Too much passing
2 - No back-up point guard
3 - Over-reliance on Ray Allen
4 - Inconsistent substitution pattern
5 - Too much isolation late

He’s got a paragraph on each at the link take a read and give your own thoughts on why a team on pace for history fell back to earth.

Lucky Thirteen in the NFL !! by gator

Cheeseheads versus Stetsons…it’s almost like the ‘bad old days’ in the early ’90s…with the #1 ranking in the NFC at stake. Who will come out ahead?? Only time (and the NFL Network) will tell……
As for the vikes–will the return of “AD” mean a return to respectability? Or will the Lions right a sinking ship? Watch Sunday (as long as they’re not blacked out….) to see…….

SUNDAY’S GAME OUT IN THE MEADOWLANDS
WAS A MASSACRE OF THE HIGHEST DEGREE
AS THE VIKINGS’ OFFENSE SCORED TWO TOUCHDOWNS
WHILE THEIR DEFENSE RACKED UP THREE

MANNING AND THE GIANTS WATCHED HELPLESSLY
AS THE VIKINGS KEPT THEM STUFFED INTO A HOLE
CRUSHING ANY HOPE OF A COMEBACK ATTEMPT
AND NEVER RELINQUISHING CONTROL

THE VIKINGS NOW FEEL THE PLAYOFFS ARE IN REACH
WITH DETROIT BEING THE NEXT TEAM IN THE WAY
THE LIONS OF COURSE ARE LICKING THE WOUNDS
INFLICTED BY THE PACKERS ON TURKEY DAY

WHEN THESE TEAMS PLAYED BEFORE THIS SEASON
TO SAY THE GAME WASN’T PRETTY WOULD BE TOO KIND
AS THE LIONS WON THE GAME WITH A LONG FIELD GOAL
AFTER THE VIKINGS LET THE GAME GO INTO OVERTIME

DETROIT HOWEVER HAS LOST THREE GAMES IN A ROW
AND IF MINNESOTA WINS THESE TEAMS WILL BE TIED
AS ONCE AGAIN THE LIONS PULL THEIR USUAL COLLAPSE
AND WATCH THEIR SUCCESSFUL SEASON WAVE GOOD-BYE
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

ON THANKSGIVING THE LIONS TOOK AN EARLY LEAD
AS THE PACKERS HAD AN INAUSPICIOUS BEGINNING
THEN AS HAS HAPPENED IN OTHER GAMES THIS YEAR
THEY RIGHTED THEMSELVES AND WOUND UP WINNING

MANY HAVE EAGERLY AWAITED THIS WEEK’S CONTEST
AS BOTH DALLAS AND GREEN BAY ARE AT TEN AND ONE
WHILE OTHERS HAVE BEEN DREADING THIS WEEK’S GAME
KNOWING THE SERIES’ HISTORY HASN’T HELD MUCH FUN

LIKE THE PACKERS, THE ‘POKES ARE A MIXTURE
OF TALENTED PLAYERS BOTH VETERAN AND YOUNG
BOTH HAVE TALENTED GROUPS OF RECEIVERS
AND THEIR QUARTERBACKS’ PRAISES HAVE BEEN SUNG

IT’S GOING TO BE LIKE THE OLD SAYING GOES
“THIS GAME WILL WON OR LOST DOWN IN THE TRENCHES”
THE DEFENSES WILL BE EXTREMELY IMPORTANT
AS WILL THE PLAYERS COMING OFF THE BENCHES

CAN THE PACKERS CONTAIN T.O. AND JASON WITTEN
AND SHUT DOWN THE DALLAS RUNNING GAME?
WILL DRIVER, JENINGS AND GREG JONES RUN FREE
OR CAN THE COWBOYS MAKE THAT GROUP LOOK TAME?

FOR ONCE THE CONTEST DESERVES ALL THE HYPE
AS “SUPER BOWL CONTENDER” THE WINNER’S ANNOINTED
THESE ARE THE BEST TEAMS THE NFC HAS TO OFFER
AND FOOTBALL FANS AREN’T GOING TO BE DISAPPOINTED
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

THE VIKINGS SHOULD EASILY BE ABLE TO WIN THIS GAME
WHICH GREATLY INCREASES THEIR CHANCES OF TANKING
THE PACKERS WILL HAVE TO FIGHT TOOTH AND NAIL
BUT SHOULD MOVE UP THE CONTENDER’S RANKINGS.

gator gives us poetry on the Pack and Vikes every week, this week with an NFC championship game preview I decided to share it with every one.

Heltonfan has used his projection system to come up with an analysis of the top free agents and attempts to quantify what their contracts should be.

Here’s who winds up as top 10 by Wins Added above Replacement and what their contract would be in light of market trends and projections

ARod 5.89 WAR - 7 years/201Million$
Fukudome 4.45 - 4/91M$
Bonds 4.44 - 1/18M$
M.Bradley 4.15 - 3/42M$
Posada 3.61 - 3/51M$
Hunter 3.43 - 5/73M$
Schilling 3.04 - 1/15M$
M.Rivera 2.44 - 3/37M$
Kuroda 2.27 - didn’t make the salary speculation
Lohse 2.08 - 3/29M$

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See the entire thread and comments on other projections

Recently added is his spotlight on the talented young Tamp Bay Rays.

I can’t remember the last time the Rockies lost a playoff game. Seriously, my own ball club was in its second best season of all time busy struggling past the Yankees. Plus back on October 7th 1995 I was starting my 54th week of studying Arabic full time for the US Army. I didn’t have space in my head for the Blake Street Bombers. A dozen years since a playoff loss - sure this is their first year back - but quit disrespecting the Rox (link to Rox fans feeling disrespected). These kids can play, and win. They’ve been doing it non-stop basically for two months.

On the other side of this World Series equation I see a club that has become the Evil Empire lite (props to Timberwolf). Once they got good they aren’t as much fun to love. But they aren’t definitely still fun to watch, with Manny being Manny, Schilling inserting himself into any drama, and two pitchers from Japan this club’s international appeal has fueled the Red Sox Nation with hopes of a second World Championship in just four seasons. Trying to erase a history of ineptitude are these Sox the new “comeback kids?”

AutomatedTeller (RedSox Mod) gives us this prediction in the Sox forum’s World Series thread

Ellsbury will be starting game #1. vs. a LHP. The Coco Crisp era is over. When was the last time a GG caliber CF for a WS team didnt’ start the world series for a rookie?

Carl Yazstremski will throw out the first pitch of game #1!!!! Unbeknownst to all, he is Jeff Francis’s godfather.

Predictions? I think Sox in 6. This Rockies team is legitimate. If you just compare numbers, the rockies have a better offense (remember, no DH) and the Sox have the better pitching, and they kind of cancel. However, the Sox had 2 guys who underperformed in the regular season and I don’t see that from the Rockies. Helton, maybe, but his numbers have been down for some years.

Heltonfan (Rox Mod) gets a little more technical/sabermetric in the Colorado Rockies thread

Here’s how my projections see the lineups (numbers given are projected Wins Above Replacement over a full season):

C: Varitek 2.37, Torrealba 0.21
1B: Helton 4.02, Youkilis 2.38
2B: Pedroia 2.57, Matsui 1.43
SS: Tulowitzki 2.59, Lugo 1.69
3B: Lowell 2.76, Atkins 2.59
LF: Holliday 5.10, Ramirez 3.22
CF: Ellsbury 0.95, Taveras 0.37
RF: Hawpe 3.06, Drew 2.26
DH: Ortiz 6.01, Spilborghs 0.97

So basically, Wolf’s analysis is right on. If we take these numbers, and weight them according to home-field advantage (four games with DH, three games without, and assuming that Ortiz replaces Youkilis at Coors), the Red Sox lineup totals 23.3 projected WAR, compared to our 19.9. So the difference in lineups amounts to a little over 3 wins per year.

Pitching:

Beckett 4.74, Francis 3.78
Schilling 4.34, Jimenez 0.50
Matsuzaka 4.73, Fogg 1.84
Cook 3.55, Lester 1.27

Projections are not kind to Ubaldo, and, as discussed earlier, they’re probably too kind to Matsuzaka. I think it’s reasonable in both of those cases to use 2007 stats rather than projections - in that case, the numbers to be used are 4.02 for Dice-K and 1.73 for Ubaldo. Repeating the process, weighting things by the number of starts we expect each pitcher to get, the Red Sox’ rotation is worth a projected 15.7 wins per year; ours is worth 10.4. Which is another way of stating the blatantly obvious: there’s a huge difference between Schilling/Matsuzaka and Jimenez/Fogg.

Bullpens:
Papelbon 4.32, Corpas 2.32
Fuentes 1.05, Okajima 0.75
Delcarmen 0.78, Hawkins 0.63
Timlin 0.72, Herges 0.55
Affeldt 0.76, Lopez 0.27
Speier 0.25, Snyder -0.01
Gagne 0.80, Buchholz 0.38

Totals: Boston 7.6, Colorado 5.9. We’ve got a slight edge after the closers, but there’s a huge difference between Papelbon and Corpas. None of this should be particularly controversial.

Add it all up, and the Red Sox are 10-11 games better than we are over a full season. And this is without considering any possible difference in the quality of the leagues. So the Vegas line, with the Red Sox as 2:1 favorites, is probably about right. But flip that around: there’s a one-in-three chance that we’ll actually win this thing. That’s plenty to get excited about, I think.

It is the World Series, hopefully seven full games of baseball at two unique settings, venerable Fenway and humidor aided Coors Field. I don’t know who will win. I know my heart yearns for the story that encompasses the Colorado club, but my head says the Boston club.

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For those that prefer the quick and dirty there’s a little poll for you. Want to follow the individual clubs’ fans? Rockies and Red Sox. For those who just want to see what baseball fans around FanHome think of the games here is the GameThread for Game One. In nine days we will know the answer as to which team gets the trophy, but if Colorado doesn’t lose, I’m betting that memory will last for all of us.

After five weeks of the season DiamondDave gives us his rankings for the NFL. Bye weeks, quaterback changes, come from behind victories, a few undefeateds remain and several perrenial powers struggle.

Top Four in the AFC
Patriots
Colts
Steelers
Jaguars

Top Four NFC
Cowboys
Buccaneers
Redskins
Packers

Bottom Four Overall
32- Dolphins
31- Rams
30- Jets
29- Saints

Comments in the thread pertain to the low ranking of the Eagles, and the Seahawks who are either too low, or too high depending on his method.

Dave Littlefield is already out as the Pirates General Manager, but he isn’t the type that an opposing organization looks at and wants to employ immediately. On the other hand Walt Jocketty is now the FORMER General Manager of the St.Louis Cardinals. After 13 years with the same organization, in which he lead brought in talent to get 6 Division titles, 1 Wild Card appearence, 2 National League Pennants and One World Championship Cardinal fans are getting ready for a new era. John Mozeliak is now the acting General Manager.

This isn’t the only worry for Cardinal fans though. After losing Jocketty, the fans now have to worry if their Championship manager might be gone soon as well. With things up in the air right now concerning whether or not Jocketty has been fired the future of the team - of LaRussa and Dave Duncan is also an unknown. One year champions with 83 regular season wins, only five less wins and less than a year later the future is in doubt.

Join Ewttexas, Bleacherbum, tulcard, BleacherBum and the rest as they ponder the uncertain future of the St Louis NL club.

The Colorado Rockies will face the San Diego Padres in a one game playoff to determine which of the two teams will be the NL Wild Card winner. Newman gets the first post on the Rockies board. This active forum got to experience one of the longer winning streaks of the season late in the year. Many have postulated that the Rockies are a team of destiny, having faced playoff pressure for a full week.

Monday night the “team of destiny” will face likely Cy Young Winner Jake Peavy.

Other playoff match-ups are
American League
LAAA @ Boston
NYY @ Cleveland

National League
Cubs @ Arizona
Winner @ Philly

Your predictions?

DiamondDave takes a look at the NFL ranking every team in the league. Three weeks in his top five teams are all 3-0 and the bottom 5 are all 0-3.

Top Five

1-Patriots
2-Colts
3-Cowboys
4-Steelers
5-Packers

Bottom Five

28-Saints
29-Rams
30-Dolphins
31-Bills
32-Falcons

Don’t see your team? Want to comment on where they do belong?
Full Rankings Here

There’s more trouble in the NFL, and this time it is game related. The closest thing the league has to a dynasty has been caught cheating, but taping the opponents sideline. NadoBrave posts in the NFL forum, but where the damage is really apparent is when a Patriots fan responds on their team boardit isn’t in defense.

Personally I’m really bummed this story was confirmed, and the fact that the Pats have been accused of this before is a little unsettling. They were accused of doing this in Green Bay last year.

Later Drury makes it clear she doesn’t want games forfeited and will accept a penalty as a fan, which I guess is good, because the league is considering now how many draft picks the Patriots dynasty will lose. Will this be their downfall?

In the thread on the Patriots first game of the 2007 season Zen653 sounds off with his take on the Tom Brady led New England gridiron squad.

Decisive victory by the Patriots here in Week 1. That was an impressive thrashing of Eric Mangini’s vaunted New York Jets. The offensive line gave Brady plenty of time to throw the ball and he delivered some beautiful passes, connecting with Randy Moss for 50+ yards on one occasion. Remember when critics used to say that he couldn’t throw the long ball? He’s just never had anyone like Moss to reel it in.

It was also great to see Junior Seau and Adalius Thomas (does that guy cover a lot of ground, or what?) so active on defense and Ellis Hobbs running an NFL-record 108 yards on the kick return. That’s a very auspicious beginning to the young season and it came against a quality opponent. The only guy who looked a little shaky to me was Dante Stallworth who dropped a few short passes. He reminded me a bit of Caldwell in that regard. I also didn’t like the botched field goal attempt towards the end of the first half.

Still, all in all, a strong showing by the Patriots. I’m confident this team has what it takes to win a lot of games. We’ll know more next week after the game against San Diego.

Follow the Patriots in their forum all year long