by adeel

Here we go again. Peyton Manning versus Tom Brady, the Indianapolis Colts against the New England Patriots. For years, this has been as good a game as there is in football, and this one is no different. The defending Super Bowl champions are playing at home and undefeated in seven games, winning each game by an average of 17 points. Still, they opened as 4-point underdogs.

That’s just how good the New England Patriots have been this year, winning eight games by an average score of 41-16. Tom Brady has thrown 30 touchdowns in half a season against just two interceptions, and rolled up a quarterback rating of 136.2. In their latest victory, the Patriots embarrassed the Washington Redskins 52-7. Detractors might say that the Patriots are running up the score and that they’re jerks. They might be right, but there is no doubting that New England has looked as impossibly flawless as any team has in the history of the NFL.

That means that the Colts, historically second fiddle to the Patriots over the last several seasons prior to a breakthrough win in the AFC Championship game this January, don’t stand a chance, right? In gazing with slack-jawed admiration at the Patriots, many fans have ignored the strengths of the Colts.

For one thing, Indianapolis is the defending Super Bowl champion. Second, Indianapolis has beaten New England in their last three meetings. Third, Indianapolis has quietly demolished playoff-calibre teams: winning by 19, 22 and 24 points against the Buccaneers, Jaguars and Panthers. Those margins, Colts fans are no doubt quick to add, came without fourth-quarter gunslinging.

It’s fair to expect this game to be very similar to the high-scoring AFC title game played at the RCA Dome just nine months ago. Both teams are exceptional at scoring points, so the outcome will likely hinge on which offense that falters, or on which defense can earn the most stops.

The Colts have actually had the better defense this year (2nd in points allowed compared to 5th) and their pass defense is also second, compared to 6th for the Patriots. New England’s defense has also shown cracks when playing a strong offense, allowing 27 points to Dallas in week 6. Bearing these two facts in mind, it’s a safe bet that the Colts will be able to score at least 30 points and that their defense will be strong enough to hold the Patriots under 40 as well.

However, it’s tough to ignore all the offensive weapons that New England has. Even if Randy Moss (779 yards, 11 TDs) is taken out of the equation, the Colts still have to account for Wes Welker (613 yards, 6 TDs) and Donte Stallworth (411 yards, 3 TDs). The Colts, even with a healthy Marvin Harrison, look to be just a step behind on offense. Coupled with Tom Brady’s invincibility this season and Peyton Manning’s penchant for making mistakes, it’s reasonable to expect the Patriots to be just one step ahead of the Patriots at the end of the game.

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