I can’t remember the last time the Rockies lost a playoff game. Seriously, my own ball club was in its second best season of all time busy struggling past the Yankees. Plus back on October 7th 1995 I was starting my 54th week of studying Arabic full time for the US Army. I didn’t have space in my head for the Blake Street Bombers. A dozen years since a playoff loss - sure this is their first year back - but quit disrespecting the Rox (link to Rox fans feeling disrespected). These kids can play, and win. They’ve been doing it non-stop basically for two months.

On the other side of this World Series equation I see a club that has become the Evil Empire lite (props to Timberwolf). Once they got good they aren’t as much fun to love. But they aren’t definitely still fun to watch, with Manny being Manny, Schilling inserting himself into any drama, and two pitchers from Japan this club’s international appeal has fueled the Red Sox Nation with hopes of a second World Championship in just four seasons. Trying to erase a history of ineptitude are these Sox the new “comeback kids?”

AutomatedTeller (RedSox Mod) gives us this prediction in the Sox forum’s World Series thread

Ellsbury will be starting game #1. vs. a LHP. The Coco Crisp era is over. When was the last time a GG caliber CF for a WS team didnt’ start the world series for a rookie?

Carl Yazstremski will throw out the first pitch of game #1!!!! Unbeknownst to all, he is Jeff Francis’s godfather.

Predictions? I think Sox in 6. This Rockies team is legitimate. If you just compare numbers, the rockies have a better offense (remember, no DH) and the Sox have the better pitching, and they kind of cancel. However, the Sox had 2 guys who underperformed in the regular season and I don’t see that from the Rockies. Helton, maybe, but his numbers have been down for some years.

Heltonfan (Rox Mod) gets a little more technical/sabermetric in the Colorado Rockies thread

Here’s how my projections see the lineups (numbers given are projected Wins Above Replacement over a full season):

C: Varitek 2.37, Torrealba 0.21
1B: Helton 4.02, Youkilis 2.38
2B: Pedroia 2.57, Matsui 1.43
SS: Tulowitzki 2.59, Lugo 1.69
3B: Lowell 2.76, Atkins 2.59
LF: Holliday 5.10, Ramirez 3.22
CF: Ellsbury 0.95, Taveras 0.37
RF: Hawpe 3.06, Drew 2.26
DH: Ortiz 6.01, Spilborghs 0.97

So basically, Wolf’s analysis is right on. If we take these numbers, and weight them according to home-field advantage (four games with DH, three games without, and assuming that Ortiz replaces Youkilis at Coors), the Red Sox lineup totals 23.3 projected WAR, compared to our 19.9. So the difference in lineups amounts to a little over 3 wins per year.

Pitching:

Beckett 4.74, Francis 3.78
Schilling 4.34, Jimenez 0.50
Matsuzaka 4.73, Fogg 1.84
Cook 3.55, Lester 1.27

Projections are not kind to Ubaldo, and, as discussed earlier, they’re probably too kind to Matsuzaka. I think it’s reasonable in both of those cases to use 2007 stats rather than projections - in that case, the numbers to be used are 4.02 for Dice-K and 1.73 for Ubaldo. Repeating the process, weighting things by the number of starts we expect each pitcher to get, the Red Sox’ rotation is worth a projected 15.7 wins per year; ours is worth 10.4. Which is another way of stating the blatantly obvious: there’s a huge difference between Schilling/Matsuzaka and Jimenez/Fogg.

Bullpens:
Papelbon 4.32, Corpas 2.32
Fuentes 1.05, Okajima 0.75
Delcarmen 0.78, Hawkins 0.63
Timlin 0.72, Herges 0.55
Affeldt 0.76, Lopez 0.27
Speier 0.25, Snyder -0.01
Gagne 0.80, Buchholz 0.38

Totals: Boston 7.6, Colorado 5.9. We’ve got a slight edge after the closers, but there’s a huge difference between Papelbon and Corpas. None of this should be particularly controversial.

Add it all up, and the Red Sox are 10-11 games better than we are over a full season. And this is without considering any possible difference in the quality of the leagues. So the Vegas line, with the Red Sox as 2:1 favorites, is probably about right. But flip that around: there’s a one-in-three chance that we’ll actually win this thing. That’s plenty to get excited about, I think.

It is the World Series, hopefully seven full games of baseball at two unique settings, venerable Fenway and humidor aided Coors Field. I don’t know who will win. I know my heart yearns for the story that encompasses the Colorado club, but my head says the Boston club.

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For those that prefer the quick and dirty there’s a little poll for you. Want to follow the individual clubs’ fans? Rockies and Red Sox. For those who just want to see what baseball fans around FanHome think of the games here is the GameThread for Game One. In nine days we will know the answer as to which team gets the trophy, but if Colorado doesn’t lose, I’m betting that memory will last for all of us.