Heltonfan has used his projection system to come up with an analysis of the top free agents and attempts to quantify what their contracts should be.

Here’s who winds up as top 10 by Wins Added above Replacement and what their contract would be in light of market trends and projections

ARod 5.89 WAR - 7 years/201Million$
Fukudome 4.45 - 4/91M$
Bonds 4.44 - 1/18M$
M.Bradley 4.15 - 3/42M$
Posada 3.61 - 3/51M$
Hunter 3.43 - 5/73M$
Schilling 3.04 - 1/15M$
M.Rivera 2.44 - 3/37M$
Kuroda 2.27 - didn’t make the salary speculation
Lohse 2.08 - 3/29M$

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See the entire thread and comments on other projections

Recently added is his spotlight on the talented young Tamp Bay Rays.

by adeel

Here we go again. Peyton Manning versus Tom Brady, the Indianapolis Colts against the New England Patriots. For years, this has been as good a game as there is in football, and this one is no different. The defending Super Bowl champions are playing at home and undefeated in seven games, winning each game by an average of 17 points. Still, they opened as 4-point underdogs.

That’s just how good the New England Patriots have been this year, winning eight games by an average score of 41-16. Tom Brady has thrown 30 touchdowns in half a season against just two interceptions, and rolled up a quarterback rating of 136.2. In their latest victory, the Patriots embarrassed the Washington Redskins 52-7. Detractors might say that the Patriots are running up the score and that they’re jerks. They might be right, but there is no doubting that New England has looked as impossibly flawless as any team has in the history of the NFL.

That means that the Colts, historically second fiddle to the Patriots over the last several seasons prior to a breakthrough win in the AFC Championship game this January, don’t stand a chance, right? In gazing with slack-jawed admiration at the Patriots, many fans have ignored the strengths of the Colts.

For one thing, Indianapolis is the defending Super Bowl champion. Second, Indianapolis has beaten New England in their last three meetings. Third, Indianapolis has quietly demolished playoff-calibre teams: winning by 19, 22 and 24 points against the Buccaneers, Jaguars and Panthers. Those margins, Colts fans are no doubt quick to add, came without fourth-quarter gunslinging.

It’s fair to expect this game to be very similar to the high-scoring AFC title game played at the RCA Dome just nine months ago. Both teams are exceptional at scoring points, so the outcome will likely hinge on which offense that falters, or on which defense can earn the most stops.

The Colts have actually had the better defense this year (2nd in points allowed compared to 5th) and their pass defense is also second, compared to 6th for the Patriots. New England’s defense has also shown cracks when playing a strong offense, allowing 27 points to Dallas in week 6. Bearing these two facts in mind, it’s a safe bet that the Colts will be able to score at least 30 points and that their defense will be strong enough to hold the Patriots under 40 as well.

However, it’s tough to ignore all the offensive weapons that New England has. Even if Randy Moss (779 yards, 11 TDs) is taken out of the equation, the Colts still have to account for Wes Welker (613 yards, 6 TDs) and Donte Stallworth (411 yards, 3 TDs). The Colts, even with a healthy Marvin Harrison, look to be just a step behind on offense. Coupled with Tom Brady’s invincibility this season and Peyton Manning’s penchant for making mistakes, it’s reasonable to expect the Patriots to be just one step ahead of the Patriots at the end of the game.

Game Predictions and Commentary in Thread

Just a heads up to the few and the proud that cross the front page here at der FanHome: We upgraded to a new version of our blog software and are experiencing some difficulties. We should have everything back to normal soon hopefully.

Update: Everything is fixed now but we’re still tooling around a bit, so the front page may go down for a short while at any time.

The New York Yankees are reported to have made Alex an offer , this immense in effect 8/230 contract comes in light of past statements that we would never see another contract like his last, so much for the experts…

So it might seem that Braves fan speculation on whether they would want him might be moot.

Will he wind up signing that extension or will he explore the waters of Free Agency again winding up in a different market with a team with tons of cash available? Follow the rumors concerning A-Rod here and join the speculation about where he will wind up

I can’t remember the last time the Rockies lost a playoff game. Seriously, my own ball club was in its second best season of all time busy struggling past the Yankees. Plus back on October 7th 1995 I was starting my 54th week of studying Arabic full time for the US Army. I didn’t have space in my head for the Blake Street Bombers. A dozen years since a playoff loss - sure this is their first year back - but quit disrespecting the Rox (link to Rox fans feeling disrespected). These kids can play, and win. They’ve been doing it non-stop basically for two months.

On the other side of this World Series equation I see a club that has become the Evil Empire lite (props to Timberwolf). Once they got good they aren’t as much fun to love. But they aren’t definitely still fun to watch, with Manny being Manny, Schilling inserting himself into any drama, and two pitchers from Japan this club’s international appeal has fueled the Red Sox Nation with hopes of a second World Championship in just four seasons. Trying to erase a history of ineptitude are these Sox the new “comeback kids?”

AutomatedTeller (RedSox Mod) gives us this prediction in the Sox forum’s World Series thread

Ellsbury will be starting game #1. vs. a LHP. The Coco Crisp era is over. When was the last time a GG caliber CF for a WS team didnt’ start the world series for a rookie?

Carl Yazstremski will throw out the first pitch of game #1!!!! Unbeknownst to all, he is Jeff Francis’s godfather.

Predictions? I think Sox in 6. This Rockies team is legitimate. If you just compare numbers, the rockies have a better offense (remember, no DH) and the Sox have the better pitching, and they kind of cancel. However, the Sox had 2 guys who underperformed in the regular season and I don’t see that from the Rockies. Helton, maybe, but his numbers have been down for some years.

Heltonfan (Rox Mod) gets a little more technical/sabermetric in the Colorado Rockies thread

Here’s how my projections see the lineups (numbers given are projected Wins Above Replacement over a full season):

C: Varitek 2.37, Torrealba 0.21
1B: Helton 4.02, Youkilis 2.38
2B: Pedroia 2.57, Matsui 1.43
SS: Tulowitzki 2.59, Lugo 1.69
3B: Lowell 2.76, Atkins 2.59
LF: Holliday 5.10, Ramirez 3.22
CF: Ellsbury 0.95, Taveras 0.37
RF: Hawpe 3.06, Drew 2.26
DH: Ortiz 6.01, Spilborghs 0.97

So basically, Wolf’s analysis is right on. If we take these numbers, and weight them according to home-field advantage (four games with DH, three games without, and assuming that Ortiz replaces Youkilis at Coors), the Red Sox lineup totals 23.3 projected WAR, compared to our 19.9. So the difference in lineups amounts to a little over 3 wins per year.

Pitching:

Beckett 4.74, Francis 3.78
Schilling 4.34, Jimenez 0.50
Matsuzaka 4.73, Fogg 1.84
Cook 3.55, Lester 1.27

Projections are not kind to Ubaldo, and, as discussed earlier, they’re probably too kind to Matsuzaka. I think it’s reasonable in both of those cases to use 2007 stats rather than projections - in that case, the numbers to be used are 4.02 for Dice-K and 1.73 for Ubaldo. Repeating the process, weighting things by the number of starts we expect each pitcher to get, the Red Sox’ rotation is worth a projected 15.7 wins per year; ours is worth 10.4. Which is another way of stating the blatantly obvious: there’s a huge difference between Schilling/Matsuzaka and Jimenez/Fogg.

Bullpens:
Papelbon 4.32, Corpas 2.32
Fuentes 1.05, Okajima 0.75
Delcarmen 0.78, Hawkins 0.63
Timlin 0.72, Herges 0.55
Affeldt 0.76, Lopez 0.27
Speier 0.25, Snyder -0.01
Gagne 0.80, Buchholz 0.38

Totals: Boston 7.6, Colorado 5.9. We’ve got a slight edge after the closers, but there’s a huge difference between Papelbon and Corpas. None of this should be particularly controversial.

Add it all up, and the Red Sox are 10-11 games better than we are over a full season. And this is without considering any possible difference in the quality of the leagues. So the Vegas line, with the Red Sox as 2:1 favorites, is probably about right. But flip that around: there’s a one-in-three chance that we’ll actually win this thing. That’s plenty to get excited about, I think.

It is the World Series, hopefully seven full games of baseball at two unique settings, venerable Fenway and humidor aided Coors Field. I don’t know who will win. I know my heart yearns for the story that encompasses the Colorado club, but my head says the Boston club.

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For those that prefer the quick and dirty there’s a little poll for you. Want to follow the individual clubs’ fans? Rockies and Red Sox. For those who just want to see what baseball fans around FanHome think of the games here is the GameThread for Game One. In nine days we will know the answer as to which team gets the trophy, but if Colorado doesn’t lose, I’m betting that memory will last for all of us.

After five weeks of the season DiamondDave gives us his rankings for the NFL. Bye weeks, quaterback changes, come from behind victories, a few undefeateds remain and several perrenial powers struggle.

Top Four in the AFC
Patriots
Colts
Steelers
Jaguars

Top Four NFC
Cowboys
Buccaneers
Redskins
Packers

Bottom Four Overall
32- Dolphins
31- Rams
30- Jets
29- Saints

Comments in the thread pertain to the low ranking of the Eagles, and the Seahawks who are either too low, or too high depending on his method.

Dave Littlefield is already out as the Pirates General Manager, but he isn’t the type that an opposing organization looks at and wants to employ immediately. On the other hand Walt Jocketty is now the FORMER General Manager of the St.Louis Cardinals. After 13 years with the same organization, in which he lead brought in talent to get 6 Division titles, 1 Wild Card appearence, 2 National League Pennants and One World Championship Cardinal fans are getting ready for a new era. John Mozeliak is now the acting General Manager.

This isn’t the only worry for Cardinal fans though. After losing Jocketty, the fans now have to worry if their Championship manager might be gone soon as well. With things up in the air right now concerning whether or not Jocketty has been fired the future of the team - of LaRussa and Dave Duncan is also an unknown. One year champions with 83 regular season wins, only five less wins and less than a year later the future is in doubt.

Join Ewttexas, Bleacherbum, tulcard, BleacherBum and the rest as they ponder the uncertain future of the St Louis NL club.

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Come on, be honest Met fans (and those who paid close attention to the Mets fall down the stretch)… Does Willie Randolph really deserve the blame? How much of it goes to Omar Minya? Or do either of them deserve an iota?

Of course, Minya has already said Randolph’s job is safe… But what do the fans think in this instance? Cast your vote and voice your thoughts.